Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Julius Randle
NBA Odds: Jazz vs. Knicks
| Jazz Odds | -7.5 |
| Knicks Odds | +7.5 |
| Over/Under | 213.5 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet RM |
Quite a day it’s been for sports bettors in New York. After waking up to the news of Gov. Cuomo embracing mobile sports betting, New Yorkers now get the chance to bet on their Knicks in tonight’s meeting with the Jazz — a team coming off a 31-point loss to Brooklyn just a night ago.
But while the 4-3 Knicks are getting seven and a half points against a team boasting the same record, sharp bettors aren’t seeing New York as the smart play tonight, at least according to our PRO Report.
Note: Odds, data as of 12 p.m. ET.
NBA Pick: Jazz vs. Knicks
Big bets from sharps have instead been landing on the Jazz, and extending this spread from its opening number. There is, however, an indication (based on our model’s projection) that the movement may have finally gone a bit too far.
Sharp Action
As of writing, 60% of bettors have taken the points with the Knicks. So the line’s movement toward the opposite side should, in itself, serve as a pretty strong hint of sharp action on the Jazz.
For confirmation, Action Labs has triggered a Bet Signal on Utah, revealing a market-wide move at -6.5 caused specifically by professional action.
Sharp Action edge: Jazz
Big Money
Serving as another indicator of pros’ opinion, the 40% backing of the Jazz has generated 75% of the actual money being wagered on the spread.
Of course, that’s worth sportsbooks’ attention simply as a monetary liability, but perhaps more importantly, the significant discrepancy between bets and money reveals how bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are playing this game.
Big Money edge: Jazz
PRO Systems
Also worth noting, the bet-vs.-money discrepancy isn’t just indicative of sharp action, it’s actually led to a profit, historically speaking.
The current split fits the Jazz into our “NBA Tickets vs. Money” PRO System, which has returned a 55% win rate on a sample of more than 600 games since 2005 (when we began collecting money percentage data).
PRO Systems edge: Jazz
Model Projection
While there’s little question of why sportsbooks have been forced to shift this line, there’s always a point of too much movement, and our NBA model suggests that this number may have reached it.
It projects the true spread closer to the opener, at Jazz -6.1, which may be foreshadowing of some buyback should this line continue to grow.
Model Projection edge: Knicks