Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: LaMelo Ball
NBA Odds: Thunder vs. Hornets
| Thunder Odds | +2.5 |
| Hornets Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 217.5 |
| PRO Projection | CHA -0.8 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS-SE |
It may not be able to compete with the quality of the Christmas Day slate, but Saturday’s NBA lineup does outdo its predecessor in terms of quantity. And with 10 games tipping off today, you can be fairly sure that sharps are going to sniff out some value.
One game in particular has drawn not just sharp bettors, but also our NBA experts, a match to one of our historically profitable PRO Systems, and an spread edge based on our model’s projections — all on the same side.
Our PRO Report breaks it down.
NBA Pick: Thunder vs. Hornets
Thanks to all of the above, the Thunder are granted with a “perfect” 5-signal rating tonight on our PRO Report.
Sharp Action
Opening as 3-point favorites across much of the market, the Hornets have actually been the slightly more popular side of this matchup thus far. As of writing, 54% of bettors on this spread have landed on Charlotte, which, when paired with the line’s movement away from Charlotte, should tell you something about the type of bettors on the other side.
Sure enough, Sports Insights Bet Signals have revealed three separate instances of market-wide responses to sharp action on Oklahoma City.
Sharp Action edge: Thunder
Big Money
Also giving sportsbooks reason to move this line away from the popular side, the 46% backing of the Thunder has generated almost all of the early money hitting the spread (93%). Of course, that puts financial pressure on the books, but perhaps more importantly (in the sense of location sharp action), it reveals that bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps — are landing on the Thunder.
Big Money edge: Thunder
PRO Systems
The bet-vs.-money discrepancy is so significant, in fact, that this game fits as a match for one of our PRO Betting Systems.
The appropriately named “NBA Tickets vs. Money” System has returned a 55% against-the-spread win rate on a sample of more than 600 games.
PRO Systems edge: Thunder
Model Projections
And while the Thunder are 2.5-point underdogs across most of the market (as of the early afternoon, anyway), our model suggests they shouldn’t be.
It sets the OKC line at just +0.8, giving almost two full points of value to the current number.
Model Projections edge: Thunder
Top Experts
It’s not just the sharps and betting tools finding value on the Thunder, either. Two of our top NBA betting experts have also taken OKC, though both got the Thunder at +3.
To make sure you never miss out on a pick before the line moves, download the free Action App, where you can follow all of our experts’ picks and get notified as soon as they make them.
Top Experts edge: Thunder