Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer.
Nationals vs. Cubs Odds
| Nationals Odds | -164 |
| Cubs Odds | +140 |
| Over/Under | N/A |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as Wednesday morning via BetMGM. | |
The Chicago Cubs jumped to a 2-0 series advantage against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday on the backs of a strong 6-3 victory at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs were paced offensively by David Bote and Nico Hoerner, each of whom had multi-hit games in the victory. Bote drove in three of the six runs, which included a two-run home run in the sixth inning. Ian Happ also added a solo home run for the Cubs. Overall, the offense had an impressive 13 hits on the day.
The Nationals were also relatively successful at the plate with nine hits, but they failed too often to get the big hit when it counted. They had their opportunities, but they finished just 2-12 with runners in scoring position. Starlin Castro, Trea Turner and Ryan Zimmerman all drove in runs, with Castro adding a solo home run in the loss.
Can the Cubs make it three wins in a row at home soil or can Nationals ace Max Scherzer shut them down and bring them back into the series?
Washington Nationals
With the exception of a couple of rough outings in April, Scherzer has been his usual, dominant self in 2021, pitching to a strong 2.98 xFIP and striking out batters at a dominant 11.98 K/9 clip. His batted ball data is also in-line with his last few seasons, so there have been no signs of decline in his age-36 season.
He’ll take on a Cubs team that been around league-average against right-handed pitchers this season, collectively hitting to a .310 wOBA. Of course, Scherzer is no ordinary right-handed pitcher. While he doesn’t have much history against the Cubs (his last outing against them was in 2019), that should serve as an advantage on Wednesday.
While Scherzer only pitched five innings in his last outing, he’s gone 7 and 9 innings in his previous two, respectively, so there should be no concerns about his longevity. If he does falter, Nationals manager Dave Martinez will turn to a bullpen that has been serviceable thus far with a 4.18 FIP over 124 innings pitched.
Struggling Arteta Taking Mound for Chicago
Jake Arrieta will make his eighth start of the season for the Cubs. He’s struggled so far to regain the form he had back in 2017, the last season he spent with the organization. To be fair, he’s steadily regressed from those marks over the last few seasons, but has had an especially hard time so far.
Over 37 1/3 innings, Arrieta has compiled a 5.13 FIP, a 41.1 Hard Hit % and allowed 1.69 HR/9 thus far, all well above his career averages. We’ve seen a shift in his pitch selection this season versus last, specifically an increase in fastball usage (58.9% this season versus 52.4% in 2020) and decrease in changeup usage (6.6% this season versus 17.1% in 2020).
The result has been harder hit balls and more home runs that we’ve seen him give up in past seasons.
On Wednesday, he’ll take on a Nationals team that has been slightly below league average this season against righties with a .304 team wOBA in such situations. Luckily for the Cubs, they can turn to a strong bullpen if Arrieta gets in trouble early.
So far, they’ve been one of the better units in baseball, compiling a 3.85 FIP so far and striking out batters at a rate of 11.2 K/9 innings.
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Nationals-Cubs Picks
While the Cubs have jumped out to an impressive 2-0 lead in this series, they’ve yet to face the type of stuff that Max Scherzer will throw at them. He’s the type of pitcher that can dominate any occasion and will have the added benefit of facing a team that hasn’t seen him since 2019.
On top of all of that, he takes on a Cubs team that has still yet to break out against right-handed pitching yet this year.
On the other side, Arrieta has yet to find his groove and takes on a strong Nationals lineup with plenty of bats capable of taking advantage of that elevated hard hit rate. I’m betting that the Nationals bats will prevail early here against Arrieta.
Current weather reports are also showing a 12 mph wind blowing out to left-center field, which should only elevate the risk level for Arrieta here.
I’m taking the Nationals F5 here and I’ll also be looking to play the full game line at -150 or less if I can find the number.
Picks: Nationals First Five Innings ML | Nationals ML (-150 or less)
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