Matt Sullivan/Getty Images. Pictured: Brad Keselowski, driver of the No. 2 Autotrader Ford, leads a pack of cars.
Following a two-week break for the Tokyo Summer Olympics, the NASCAR Cup Series returns for Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN) at Watkins Glen International.
Watkins Glen, an 11-turn, 3.4-mile road course, will see its first NASCAR Cup Series race in two years after last season’s event was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Chase Elliott, who has won the two most recent Cup races (2018, 2019) at Watkins Glen and seven of the last 11 road course races overall, is the overwhelming favorite at +200 odds.
With Elliott such a heavy favorite, there are some drivers further down the odds board with appetizing prices, which then ripples down to prop markets as well.
I don’t want to necessarily fade Elliott, but I’m not sure if I want to put all of my NASCAR at Watkins Glen futures odds in that one basket either.
However, I can tell you that there is another driver clearly undervalued for the race and one I’m locking in at a juicy 6-1 price to be the top finisher for his manufacturer.
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NASCAR at Watkins Glen Picks
*Odds as of Sunday at 7 a.m. ET
Brad Keselowski isn’t known as a top-tier road-course racer, but he’s had plenty of success at Watkins Glen throughout his career. In fact, over the past five Cup series races at The Glen, Kez has the fifth-best driver rating and the fifth-best average running position while leading the second-most laps.
His 10.2 average finish over that span ranks a solid eighth as well, but based on the numbers above, he’s actually been a bit unlucky as his speed has been closer to a top-five car in those events.
Additionally, Keselowski will start from the pole, providing him with that all-important track position to start the race. That’s crucial every week and even more so at road courses.
And finally, the No. 2 team has the last stall on pit road, which allows for Keselowski to pull straight out once his service is complete without needing to avoid any cars pitting directly in front of him. In a sport where fractions of second matter, this is another advantage for Kez.
Add all of this up and we have a really nice 6-1 value bet for Keselowski to be the highest finishing Ford driver at Watkins Glen.
For what it’s worth, none of the top-five drivers in terms of odds to win the race (Elliott, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin) drive for Ford, meaning this prop is very much wide open.
Yes, I do think that Keselowski’s Team Penske teammate Joey Logano should be the favorite in this market (which he is at 2-1), but also that Kez will win this bet more often than the 14.29% break-even point his +600 odds imply.
The Bet: Brad Keselowski (+600) — Top Ford Finisher