Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Reddick, driver of the #8 BetMGM Chevrolet
Practice is in the books and the starting lineup is set for Sunday’s NASCAR Verizon 200 (1 p.m. ET, NBC) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
While the XFINITY Series has now run two races on the Indy road course (including Saturday’s race), today will be the first time that the Cup Series will compete on this layout as opposed to the traditional oval at the Brickyard.
Unsurprisingly, Chase Elliott, who has won seven of the past 12 road course races, is the favorite to win the Verizon 200 favorite at +220 odds.
Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate Kyle Larson, who has two road course wins this season, including last week’s race at Watkins Glen, is next in line at +350.
After analyzing practice speeds and data from prior road course races, here’s a prop bet with +200 odds that I’m locking in ahead of today’s Verizon 200.
NASCAR at Indianapolis Picks
*Odds as of Sunday at 10:40 a.m. ET and via DraftKings Sportsbook
Tyler Reddick +200 for a Top-10 Finish
Reddick has three top 10s in five road course races so far this season and was extremely fast in practice on Saturday, posting the 10th-fastest single lap and, more importantly, the fourth-fastest five-lap average.
After qualifying 11th, Reddick also has the track position to go along with what appears to be a very fast car in race trim.
I believe another top-10 finish for Reddick is more likely than the 33.3% probability that his +200 odds imply, making this a very nice value bet for today’s race at Indy.