Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick.
For every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction.
This includes sports betting.
After a handful of recent longshot NASCAR winners at Daytona, including Michael McDowell at the 500 in February, it appears that sportsbooks have had enough.
For example, on race day morning of the 2021 Daytona 500, just 20 drivers had odds shorter than +5000 to win the race.
Heading into tonight’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7 p.m. ET, NBC) at Daytona, 27 drivers are shorter than +5000.
This means that a handful of drivers who would normally be longer shots have been shortened to avoid the potential for massive payouts and liabilities for oddsmakers should one take the checkered flag.
From a betting value perspective, this also results in some drivers who would typically be favorites having slightly longer (and more beneficial odds).
So, while it typically makes more sense to take longshots at Daytona, pricing for tonight’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 suggests that it’s smarter to key in on some of the favorites who are discounted to account for oddsmakers shortening prices for longshot drivers.
With this in mind, I’m anchoring my NASCAR at Daytona betting card around these three drivers.
NASCAR at Daytona Picks
*Odds as of Saturday at 7:15 a.m. ET
Joey Logano (+1400) to Win
While Denny Hamlin has been the top driver at the superspeedways since the start of 2020, Logano is the clear second-best.
Over that span of races, the driver of the No. 22 Ford has led the second-most laps with the second-best driver rating.
That’s pretty telling considering he has an average finish of just 24.5 over those six races — a perfect example of how average finish alone does not accurately tell the story of how well a driver has performed in those races.
And let’s not forget that Logano (who was my biggest bet in that event, #TheBrand) was also leading the 2021 Daytona 500 on the final lap before getting spun and wrecked by teammate Brad Keselowski.
I love Logano at +1400, which is currently his price at FanDuel, and like it to +1200.
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Kevin Harvick (+2400) to Win
Harvick’s 24-1 price is the perfect example of how bettors can pounce on extra value because sportsbooks are so scared of longshot liability.
Let me explain.
Harvick was +1400 to win the Daytona 500 back in February before ultimately finishing fourth, with the fourth-best driver rating as well.
At Talladega, the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Ford finished fourth once again while posting the sixth-best driver rating.
In fact, only three drivers led more laps than Harvick in those two races.
Now, after closing at +1400 for the Daytona 500, he has back-to-back fourth-place finishes at Daytona and Talladega, including plenty of time out front leading the field, and now he’s +2400?
I’m sure his subpar season thus far is also a factor here as well as “longshot protection,” but if oddsmakers want to give us a discount for one of the fastest superspeedway race cars, for any reason(s), then I’ll take it.
Just like Logano, Harvick’s best price is available at FanDuel, and I’m comfortable betting it down to +2000.
On top of these two drivers, I’ll be looking for opportunities to bet tonight’s race live, so be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any adds to my card.
More NASCAR at Daytona Content
- The 10-1 Prop Oozing With Value for Daytona
- Updated NASCAR at Daytona odds
- NASCAR at Daytona Weather Forecast