Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Romelu Lukaku.
Inter vs. Atalanta Odds
| Inter Odds | +110 |
| Atalanta Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Sunday afternoon via BetMGM. | |
Serie A leaders Inter Milan face a massive test on Monday in the form of free-flowing Atalanta.
Inter are three points clear of city rivals AC Milan after the Rossoneri beat Hellas Verona on Sunday. Atalanta enter this matchup 10 points behind Inter, and any hopes of the Scudetto would come to an end if they’re unable to win at the San Siro.
Antonio Conte’s Inter are out of European football with a sole focus of winning Serie A. They’ve been unstoppable over the past six matches, and it will take a big effort from Atalanta to slow them down.
Let’s dig in:
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Inter Milan
Inter have won six straight matches by a combined 17-2 scoreline. The expected goals scoreline is 15.84-3.14, according to Understat, which is a good indication that Inter have been every bit as good as their results would indicate.
Inter are Serie A’s leading goalscorers entering this game at 62, two ahead of Atalanta. The Nerrazzuri have just 50.86 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG), which for a lesser side would indicate a bit of fortune in front of goal.
That’s not the case for Inter, though. Instead, it’s a sign of their quality up front. They don’t need the most clearcut chances to find the back of the net because Romelu Lukaku (18 goals, eight assists) and Lautaro Martinez (13, five) are the best strike partnership in Europe. It’s rare for a team to play with two strikers nowadays, but Conte’s Inter team does it flawlessly.
Even reserve striker Alexis Sanchez has five goals and five assists in 18 appearances and is averaging a combined 1.11 expected goals and assists per 90 minutes. He scored twice on Thursday in a 2-1 win over Parma.
Defensively, the trio of Alessandro Bastoni, Stefan de Vrij and Milan Skriniar have been incredible this calendar year. In the 2020 portion of this season, Inter ranked seventh in Serie A with 17.57 NPxG in 14 matches.
In 2021, though, the Inter defense has been nothing short of magnificent. They’ve allowed eight goals in 11 games and a league-low 6.29 NPxGA.
They haven’t faced an attack like Atalanta’s this year yet, though.
Atalanta
The entertainers of Serie A, Atalanta lead the league in 2021 with 32 goals in 12 games on 27.07 NPxG. There was a thought that the side from Bergamo would slow down after selling captain Alejandro Gomez in January due to a falling out with manager Gian Piero Gasperini, but that hasn’t been the case.
No team has won more points this calendar year than Atalanta (27 through 12 games), but taking just 22 from their first 13 games made a run for the Serie A title extremely difficult.
Just like Inter, Atalanta enter this game on a fine run of form. They’ve won four straight games against Cagliari, Napoli, Sampdoria and Crotone by a combined 12-3 scoreline.
In 2021, three Atalanta players have at least six goals in their 12 games — Luis Muriel has eight, while striker Duvan Zapata and wingback Robin Gosens each have six.
Defensively, Atalanta have conceded 12 in 12 games this calendar year. It’s a respectable total, but this matchup will be their biggest test.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Our own BJ Cunningham projected this game at a combined 2.97 xG, so there’s great value on over 2.5 goals at -150 over at BetMGM.
While both defenses are playing well, Atalanta know they have to win if they’re to have any hopes of making a charge for the Serie A crown. When Atalanta goes forward and opens the game up, it’s beautiful chaos.
Inter are incredible on the counter attack, which is good news for them in this one.
Assuming Atalanta come out firing, I also like over 1.5 goals in the first half at a juicy +140.
Life’s too short to back the under, especially in Serie A.
Pick: Over 2.5 goals -150 | Over 1.5 1H goals +140
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