Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Mohamed Salah.
Leeds vs. Liverpool Odds
| Leeds Odds | +360 |
| Liverpool Odds | -155 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+135 / -167) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Sunday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
No more Champions League. No repeat title in the Premier League.
Those are the disappointing, yet very real, facts staring Liverpool in its face as the season winds down on the domestic and international fronts heading into Monday’s crucial league match against always-entertaining Leeds United.
The Reds, who have lost all chances of winning a second-consecutive crown in England’s top flight, must now focus on finishing in the top four in the table to lock up a berth in next season’s UCL competition. And they need to take a step in that direction in this contest.
On the other side, the Peacocks picked up their finest victory of the season last time out, pulling off a shocking 2-1 triumph against Manchester City at Etihad Stadium. The monstrous effort landed Leeds in 10th place on 45 points, putting the club just a point behind Arsenal.
The Gunners needed a late goal from Eddie Nketiah in the 97th minute of Sunday’s game against Fulham to salvage a 1-1 draw at Emirates Stadium, which means the Peacocks could leapfrog them with a victory.
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Leeds
Manager Marcelo Bielsa and the Peacocks continue to enjoy a lovely run after their promotion to the first division. And what better way to cap your season than picking up a signature victory against the world’s best team.
The statistics and advanced metrics didn’t work in Leeds’ favor whatsoever in last weekend’s win, but the only number line that mattered was the final score. The Peacocks, who played the final 45 minutes down a man following Liam Cooper’s late first-half red card, had a grand total of two shots, and both found their way into the back of the Cityzens’ net.
In contrast, Manchester City racked up 29 shots (12 on goal) and still couldn’t find a second after Ferran Torres equalized in the 76th minute. Instead, Stuart Dallas bagged the winner — his second of the day — in stoppage time to give Leeds the victory. The Cityzens held a whopping 2.4.-0.3 xG edge as well.
The one concern for Bielsa entering this matchup is how fit will Raphinha be after picking up a knock against Manchester City. The Brazilian winger is a vital component to the club’s attack, so keep an eye on lineup news leading up to this contest since omission would be of great benefit to Liverpool.
Liverpool
It goes without saying this has been quite the disappointing season for the Reds after such a beautiful campaign that seems like it happened long ago.
Liverpool crashed out of Champions League play following its midweek scoreless draw against Spanish giant Real Madrid in the second leg of their tie. The Reds dug themselves a huge hole in the opening match, suffering a 3-1 defeat against Los Blancos at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.
However, Liverpool has no time to wallow in its misery and must get to the task at hand. The first step toward making a run to the league’s top four is getting back on its feet with a victory over Leeds. The Reds opened their campaign with a wild, 4-3 home win over the Peacocks, with Mohamed Salah recording the hat trick. Salah leads the league with 19 goals this season.
Liverpool wound up with a massive 3.3-0.6 xG advantage in that Sept. 12 affair, but Leeds more than hung around with its foe. In fact, if it wasn’t for Salah’s second converted penalty of the game, things would have ended in a draw.
Betting Analysis & Picks
It’s seems crazy to say Liverpool defines the word “desperate” at this point in the season. However, facts are facts, and the Reds are in dire need of three points as they attempt to claw their way into the top four in the standings.
For that reason, I’m backing Liverpool to secure the victory. I don’t find much value on the Reds at -155 odds on the moneyline via DraftKings, so I’m going to kick things up a notch and play them on the alternative number of -0.75 odds at -124 instead as my top pick.
If you’re looking for a player prop, take a swing on Salah to score anytime at -121 odds as well. The Reds’ talisman dominated proceedings the last time these sides met, so expect another monster performance from the star.
Picks: Liverpool -0.75 (-124) | Mohamed Salah To Score Anytime — Yes (-121)
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