Stuart Franklin/Getty Images. Pictured: Denmark standout Yussuf Poulsen, center, is mobbed by his teammates after scoring a goal.
Two more Euro 2020 groups close out their opening-round matches Monday, with four nations booking places in the tournament’s knockout round.
Group C gets things underway first, with both games set for 12 p.m. ET starts. The Netherlands, sitting atop the standings, looks to finish unbeaten through three fixtures when it faces North Macedonia. The other contest pits Ukraine against Austria in a battle for second place.
The Group B games follow at 3 p.m. ET, highlighted by Russia’s matchup against Denmark. Finland takes on title favorite Belgium in the other contest. Belgium only needs a draw to lock up first place, while all three other countries have a chance to earn the second berth in the Round of 16 matchups.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your tournament needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections.
Handicappers BJ Cunningham, Anthony Dabbundo and Jeremy Pond give your their best bets from two of the meetings. Let’s take a look at their favorite picks on the busy slate.
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Monday’s Best Bets
| ANALYST | PICK | ODDS | BEST BOOK |
|---|---|---|
| BJ Cunningham | North Macedonia/Netherlands Over 3 (-121) | DraftKings |
| Anthony Dabbundo | Denmark ML (-139) | DraftKings |
| Jeremy Pond | Denmark ML (-139) | DraftKings |
Odds as of Sunday evening.
BJ Cunningham: North Macedonia vs. Netherlands — Total Over 3 Goals (-121)
- Odds available at DraftKings
I love this North Macedonia team, not necessarily in this match, but I really respect how they’ve played through these first two matches. It’s playing like a team with nothing to lose. It’s trying to get forward, looking to create chances from open play. Plus, the nation’s matches are actually really fun to watch.
Now, North Macedonia’s defense has been awful, because it’s allowed a total of 6.1 expected goals combined to Austria and Ukraine. Now, it faces the team that has created more than 5.5 xG against the two countries that defeated it.
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From a Netherlands perspective, it’s already won Group C because it has the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Ukraine and Austria. Plus, I’m sure we’ll see manager Frank deBoer rotate a lot of his best players to avoid a potential injury. But, even though the Dutch don’t need to really even do anything in this match, I think the backups will be motivated.
I don’t see a scenario where North Macedonia comes out and says its just going to play for a 0-0 draw, so I am actually going back the total to go over three goals as met top selection. I have projected 3.30 goals , so I like over that number at anything plus money.
Anthony Dabbundo: Denmark ML (-139) vs. Russia
- Odds available at DraftKings
Each major international tournament, there seems to be one team that runs unlucky and gets all of the variance to go against it. In Euro 2020, that would be Denmark.
The Danes have outshot their opponents, 42-7, and have the fifth-best xG differential and have dominated the midfield in both of their previous games.
No one could blame them for a lackluster second half against Finland after Christian Eriksen’s medical situation, but Denmark also outplayed Belgium over 90 minutes as well. Its midfield pairing of Thomas Delaney and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg should overwhelm a Russian side that looked very mediocre so far its group-stage matches.
Russia played Belgium much worse than Denmark and wasn’t able to get control of the ball. Against Finland, it allowed almost a full xG and was barely the better side over 90 minutes. There are major question marks about their defense, which has made numerous individual errors leading to chances.
Russian striker Artem Dyzuba will be isolated from the rest of the attack and the Danes will find the goals to get them into the knockout stage, becoming a even more dangerous dark horse with a rock solid midfield and defense.
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Jeremy Pond: Denmark ML (-139) vs. Russia
- Odds available at DraftKings
Is there anyone not Finnish or Russian who won’t be cheering for the Danes in their tournament-defining match on home soil in Copenhagen?
As someone who backed Denmark to finish second in Group B prior to the start of the tournament, I’m pushing all my chips to the center of the table in this spot and backing Kasper Schmeichel and his teammates to find a way past Russia and work its way into the knockout round.
The Danes, who haven’t had star midfielder Christian Eriksen since he suffered a medical emergency against Finland, are winless through two fixtures. However, a sizable victory here — plus a little help from likely group winner Belgium in its match against Finland — could vault Denmark into second place.
What I specifically find promising is how it fared in the xG column in both losses. The Danes held a 1.9-0.4 xG edge against Finland on debut, then followed that up with a 1.8-1.1 xG advantage over mighty Belgians.
Now, Denmark faces a Russian outfit that got torched for three goals in a rout against Belgium, so this isn’t the sharpest back line the favorite has faced.
I fully expect the Danes come out raring to go, with an entire nation of fans doing their part to help them pull off a minor miracle. That said, back Denmark to triumph in this spot at -145 odds or better and enjoy the match.
