Franck Fife – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: France star Antoine Griezmann.
We had more drama and surprises in the Euro 2020 knockout round Sunday, so who knows what’s on deck for Monday’s two matches at the competition.
The latest Round of 16 showdowns begin with Croatia taking on heavily favored Spain, followed by upset-minded Switzerland going up against tournament favorite and reigning World Cup champion France in the nightcap. The winners advance to the quarterfinal round of the soccer showcase.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your tournament needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections.
Handicappers Anthony Dabbundo and BJ Cunningham deliver their best bets for these games, with picks coming from each matchup. Let’s take a look at their favorite plays and see where they’ve found value.
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Monday’s Best Bets
| ANALYST | PICK | ODDS | BEST BOOK |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dabbundo | Croatia Under 0.5 Goals (-110) | DraftKings |
| BJ Cunningham | Switzerland +0.5 (+135) | DraftKings |
Odds as of Sunday evening.
Anthony Dabbundo: Croatia Under 0.5 Goals (-110) vs. Spain
- Odds available at DraftKings
Croatia had one of the most underwhelming attacks of any team that qualified for the knockout stages. The Croatians offered very little threat against England and the Czech Republic, plus they only had a combined 2.1 expected goals in their three group matches. Now, they play the team with the highest amount of time spent in the opposition’s half of anyone in the tournament.
Spain’s pressing and possessing style completely dominated all three teams in its group, and the Spanish should do the same to Croatia in this contest.
The Spaniards were No. 1 in field tilt — a metric that compares the percentage of passes completed in the opposition final third against passes completed in your own final third. Simply put, no team had more game control than Spain, which also had no issues creating chances.
The Spanish did allow some chances on the counterattack, but that was against much better units with excellent forwards in Sweden’s Alexander Isak and Poland’s Robert Lewandowski. Compare them to Croatia, which has no reliable striker and winger Ivan Perišić was ruled out of the game because of a positive COVID-19 test.
It’s hard to see how Croatia generates much of anything in this match, and while Spain might be vulnerable on the wings, Croatia really can’t exploit them.
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BJ Cunningham: Switzerland +0.5 (+130) vs. France
- Odds available at DraftKings
Switzerland was a really interesting team during the group stage. The country really should have got all three points against Wales, out-creating them in expected goals by a 2.60-0.57 margin. The Swiss looked terrible against Italy, then had their turn to demolish Turkey, which everyone in Group A did.
When you look at some of the advanced stats, Switzerland really kind of pops off the page. The Swiss had the fourth-most passes in the penalty area; third most shot-creating actions; and, wound up third in total shots.
However, we kind of have to take that with a grain of salt, because a lot that stat padding came in the final match against Turkey.
As for France, it stuck to the game plan it plays with under manager Didier Deschamps, which like I mentioned means to sit really deep, play the low block and then send stars Kylian Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann and Karim Benzema on the counter.
The French are just not the type of team to generate a ton of chances like you see with Germany or Italy. They really focus on being compact and organized defensively. I mean, France only has 28 shots so far this tournament, which is very low considering Switzerland has fired off 47 of its own. In fact, the French actually had a negative expected-goal differential despite winning their group.
I really think this is going to be a much more even game than people expect, so there is some value on Switzerland’s spread of +0.5 in this showdown.
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