Ira L. Black – Corbis/Getty Images. Valentin Castellanos.
Toronto FC vs. NYCFC Odds
| Toronto FC Odds | +295 |
| NYCFC Odds | -127 |
| Draw | +295 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-190 / +138) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 8 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
New York City FC look to extend their unbeaten run to five matches when they visit Toronto FC on Saturday evening.
City had won three in a row before settling for a 0-0 draw in Chicago on Wednesday.
The same night, Toronto saw their own unbeaten run snapped in a 3-0 loss at Philadelphia.
That was a first defeat in six matches under interim head coach Javier Perez after the dismissal of former manager Chris Armas.
These teams drew 1-1 at Yankee Stadium back in the spring.
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Toronto FC Could Be Missing Best Attackers
While the Reds’ results have improved substantially under Perez, it’s debatable whether the substance of their play has done the same.
Toronto have created fewer expected goals (xG) than their opponents in a stretch of nine consecutive matches that stretches back to Armas’ tenure.
Their worst xG performance actually came in Chicago two weeks ago. Toronto trailed 3.47-0.79, but won the match 2-1.
Complicating things further, Perez fielded several of his first-choice attackers in his starting XI on Wednesday.
Jozy Altidore, Michael Bradley and Yeferson Soteldo were among those starting back-to-back games, with the latter playing the entire 90 minutes of both.
Presumably that duo will be facing at least some restrictions minute-wise in Toronto’s third match in seven days.
NYCFC Lose Scoring Magic Away From Yankee Stadium
After exploding for nine goals in two home victories, City continued their trend of more modest attacking performances on the road in their draw at Chicago.
The visitors were the better offensive team at Soldier Field, but their 1.35 xG was still their lowest total since a loss to Montreal on July 7 played in Orlando.
Like Montreal and other Canadian teams forced to relocate to the U.S. for their early-season home games, NYCFC have also been managing multiple home venues because of schedule conflicts at Yankee Stadium.
In four games in the Bronx, City have scored 15 goals and earned 10 points. They haven’t scored more than twice in any games outside of Yankee Stadium, either at their provisional home of Red Bull Arena or on the road.
Maxi Moralez, Jesus Medina and Valentin Castellanos are among the attackers coming off back-to-back starts in a compact three-game stretch in nine days. But that’s a slightly less demanding stretch than Toronto’s stretch of three in seven.
Box-to-box midfielder Keaton Parks is out due to red card suspension.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Projections like those from FiveThirtyEight suggest NYCFC are right to be considered such a strong road favorite. That’s unusual in MLS where the influence of home field advantage is stronger than some other soccer leagues.
I’m still wary on NYCFC’s price, for a few reasons.
Although City’s recent schedule is less compact than the Reds, it’s more common for managers to choose away trips to rest some of their more important regulars. There’s the added boost of saving a player the rigors of travel and less pressure from supporters to be proactive in their approach.
Secondly, while Toronto have underperformed their xG totals overall, they are overperforming them under Perez. That’s a sign of a team more locked in mentally, in my opinion, even if Wednesday’s performance was poor.
Yet I still don’t trust the Reds to earn points facing a team the advanced statistics say is one of the league’s elite.
That leaves me going conservative here and playing Toronto +1.0 goals on an Asian Handicap wager at -175 odds.
City’s lack of offensive dynamism on the road suggests this is likely to be a closer contest. If you’re giving Toronto a full goal, you’re lowering the payout if they earn a point or more, but you’re shielding yourself with a push if City win by a single goal.
Pick: Toronto +1.0, Asian Handicap (-175)
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