Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Nani.
Orlando City vs. Inter Miami Odds
| Orlando City Odds | -135 |
| Inter Miami Odds | +340 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Friday | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Thursday evening via DraftKings. | |
Inter Miami manager Phil Neville takes a third shot at his first Florida Derby win on Friday night against Orlando City.
Both previous encounters were close. The Lions rallied from behind in late June to produce a 2-1 victory via Nani’s spectacular match-winning goal.
Miami earned a point in the first return fixture earlier this month, leveling after halftime through Kieran Gibbs’ second-half belter in a 1-1 draw.
This time, Miami is in its best form of its season after winning two in a row and four of six. Orlando is unbeaten in five, though the three games in the middle were draws.
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Lions Reliant on Captain Fantastic
No team lives and dies by the performances of its captain as much as Orlando City does with Nani.
When the former Manchester United and Portugal man has started and played into the second half, the Lions have a 7-1-4 record (win-loss-draw) with a +12 goal differential. When that doesn’t happen, Orlando is 2-3-3 with an -6 goal difference.
So why not play Nani all the time? The problem is an awful lot of wear and tear for a 34-year-old grinding through a condensed season in the challenging Florida summer climate.
Manager Oscar Pareja had to remove Nani after 28 minutes of the win over Chicago with a lower body injury last Saturday. He recovered enough to make a 15-minute cameo in Wednesday night’s All-Star game but is listed as questionable on Orlando’s pregame injury report.
Influential midfielder Mauricio Pereyra and goalkeeper Pedro Gallese are also among those questionable to play Friday, both with unspecified lower body injuries.
American international striker Daryl Dike has returned to full training and is not listed on the team injury report. Between international duty at the CONCACAF Gold Cup and tendinitis upon his return, he hasn’t appeared in an MLS game since July 3.
Miami Missing Key Contributors
For all the drama over the fitness and mood of former Juventus and Argentina striker Gonzalo Higuain, more consistent performances from Rodolfo Pizarro could also solve a lot of Miami’s problems.
Perhaps that moment has finally arrived after what was easily Pizarro’s best week as an MLS player since arriving in the league last year.
First, the Mexican playmaker pounced for the stoppage-time winner in a 3-2 victory over Chicago in midweek. He followed that with a brace in a 3-1 win over Toronto, earning MLS Player of the Week honors and a late All-Star call in the process.
Pizarro should be available after a 15-minute cameo at Wednesday’s All-Star Game, but Neville has other personnel shortages to deal with.
The most significant is probably defensive midfielder Gregore, who is serving a yellow card suspension. Defender Ryan Shawcross and midfielder Joevin Jones are also among five listed as out for Friday’s contest.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Given Nani’s influence and uncertain status, I have trouble backing any play on the three-way line this far ahead of kickoff.
If the squad comes out and he’s in the starting XI, though, my sense is to stay away.
If he’s not starting, I’d play an in-form Inter Miami at +0.5 goals on an Asian Handicap wager if they are still available at anything close to their current +115 odds and a 46.5% implied probability.
As for finding value now, the price of -145 odds and an implied 59.2% probability are good value on the wager of yes on both teams to score.
Miami’s improved form has come primarily on the offensive end. As for Orlando, both teams have scored in nine of the Lions’ last 11 games.
And one last fact: Both teams have scored in all six previous Florida Derby fixtures.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-145)
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