Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Tajon Buchanan (L) and Gustavo Bou.
New England vs. Nashville Odds
| New England Odds | -145 |
| Nashville Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 7 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Tuesday night via DraftKings. | |
The Supporters’ Shield leaders New England Revolution try to avenge their worst offensive performance of the season when they host third-place Nashville SC on Wednesday night.
New England enters with an eight-point cushion atop the East and a four-match winning streak after their dramatic 3-2 win at the New York Red Bulls on Saturday night.
An offense led by 2021 MLS MVP contender Carles Gil has been shut out only once all season, in a 2-0 away defeat to Nashville in May.
The visitors from are in strong form themselves, going unbeaten in their last eight while climbing five spots in the East table.
Nashville most recently fought from behind to earn a 1-1 draw in Toronto on Sunday night.
New England’s Bou In Top Form
The most impressive part of the Revs’ winning streak? Their three away victories.
New England edged Atlanta United 1-0 the final game of Gabriel Heinze’s managerial tenure, then routed Inter Miami 5-0 in midweek despite a rotated squad. They followed that with a home win over Montreal before their latest dramatic win at the Red Bulls.
In the process, Gustavo Bou has vaulted himself into the MLS Golden Boot race. He has eight goals in his last eight starts — including four in his last three — to bring his season total to 10, one off Seattle’s Raul Ruidiaz.
Additionally, winger Tajon Buchanan and Henry Kessler should return from CONCACAF Gold Cup duty in position to start.
Buchanan played in all five of Canada’s, but will be six days out from his last appearance after a semifinal loss to Mexico.
Kessler only joined the United States for the knockout phase and made only a very late cameo in the championship victory over Mexico Sunday night.
If there’s cause to be wary, it’s New England’s expected goals (xG) performance, which suggests some good fortune.
The Revs’ +12 goal difference is six better than xG would predict, according to American Soccer Analysis. That’s been worth about 10 additional points in the standings, without which New England would be merely a conference contender, not leader.
Nashville Continue To Surprise
Manager Gary Smith’s club continues to be one of the quietest MLS success stories in just their second year of competition.
Similar to New England, Nashville have skewed away from splashy “name” signings in the international market in favor of players in their prime age.
Unlike the Revs, whose attacking roles are very clearly defined, Nashville play with more interchangeable parts up front. The stats bear that out — Randall Leal, Hany Mukhtar and C.J. Sapong all have at least three goals and three assists.
Venezuelan striker Jhonder Cadiz — Nashville’s closest signing to a big splash last fall — has been the odd man out with two goals and an assist in 12 appearances (five starts).
After a 1-1 draw at Toronto on Saturday night, the condensed schedule may mean a chance to earn more time.
Defender Walker Zimmerman is still out with a hamstring injury, but midfielder/defender Anibal Godoy is off the injury report after he played the second half of a 1-1 draw in Toronto.
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Betting Analysis & Pick
The Revs are a stronger home favorite than you might expect in a clash of two teams near the top of the table.
Nashville have only lost once on the road in five trips. And if you want to play the money line, +275 odds on the draw — an implied 26.7% probability — is probably the value.
I’m more comfortable fading these teams’ reputation for defense.
These are two of the top offenses in the league, both in goals scored (New England first, Nashville tied sixth) and xG (New England third, Nashville fourth).
Defensively, Nashville have conceded the second-fewest goals in MLS but while playing 10 of 15 games at home. The Revs are mostly just outscoring people recently.
At -130 odds and a 56.5% implied probability, the price of betting yes on Both Teams to Score is quite affordable.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-130)
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