Lyndsay Radnedge/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Alan Pulido.
LAFC vs. Sporting KC Odds
| LAFC Odds | -180 |
| Sporting KC Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +340 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+125 / -155) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Tuesday night via DraftKings. | |
Sporting Kansas City could move into the top spot in the Western Conference with a victory at LAFC on Wednesday night.
Kansas City already missed one chance to climb to first after their 2-1 loss at home to Dallas on Saturday.
Unlike Saturday, they will be substantial underdogs against LAFC and a resurgent Carlos Vela.
But LAFC are also coming off a pair of disappointing draws that have prevented their own climb up the standings.
They settled for a 2-2 tie against Minnesota their last time out a week ago after conceding in second-half stoppage time.
Late Goals Costing LAFC
Here was the conventional thinking about LAFC: Get Carlos Vela rolling again, and results will follow.
After Vela posted the single most productive offensive season in MLS history in 2019, injuries and health concerns limited the Mexican star to seven appearances in 2020. Then he began 2021 on the injury shelf again with a knee issue he picked up on opening weekend.
In July, vintage Vela returned; the 32-year-old has scored in each of LAFC’s last four matches. And yet the results are middling for the preseason MLS Cup favorites.
After winning three in a row, the Black and Gold have taken only two points from their last three games while facing teams beneath them in the standings.
One culprit: very late goals. Manager Bob Bradley’s men conceded twice in second-half stoppage time in their last three matches. Going back further, four of LAFC’s 19 goals conceded have come after the 85th minute.
The defensive challenge grows Wednesday. Centerback Eddie Segura will be out for a second consecutive match with a knee injury that forced him out at halftime of a 2-2 draw against Vancouver on July 24.
Sporting KC Can Take West’s Top Spot
Kansas City already missed one chance to take the West lead with their surprising 2-1 home loss to Dallas on the weekend.
Sporting entered the game on the heels of a 3-1 win at East-leaders Seattle the week before. And then the Sounders went on to lose again to San Jose earlier on Saturday.
Instead of taking advantage, KC conceded three minutes into the first half and six minutes into the second. Johnny Russell’s third goal of the season provided only consolation.
Now Sporting head west on short rest to play a foe that had a whole week to prepare. But striker Alan Pulido and potentially Gianluca Busio could return from duty at the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Pulido appeared in four games for Mexico but played only 45 minutes in total and conceivably should have no minutes limit.
Busio played in all six U.S. matches, starting four, and he played the last 34 minutes of the final. He could be held out of manager Peter Vermes’ squad if — as has been reported — a transfer to newly promoted Serie A side Venezia is imminent.
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Betting Analysis & Pick
The timing and travel for KC sets up well for LAFC. But the problem for bettors is the Black and Gold are almost always prohibitively expensive if you don’t snag them on the opening line.
Take last week. I bet LAFC to defeat Minnesota at -155 odds — which I considered decent value at the time.
The price had risen to around -233 by kickoff, a climb from 60.8% to 70% in implied probability. And these kinds of swings occur week over week with LAFC.
Some of it owes to Vela’s starpower and the club’s reputation following its 2019 Supporters’ Shield win. And some of it probably owes to the teams’ expected goals (xG), which predict LAFC should have a goal differential at around +11. It’s actually currently +3.
So without an attractive moneyline play, you look to other possible trends that could prove profitable. And there’s one pretty big one.
Kansas City have scored the last goal in 10 of its 16 games, and LAFC have conceded the last goal in 10 of its last 16 games. And there’s likely a causal reason.
Los Angeles are far more reliant on their starters — Vela, Diego Rossi and so forth — to create the majority of their offense.
Kansas City are far more likely to get a goal from a source that begins the game on the bench. When the likes of Pulido, Busio, Gadi Kinda, Johnny Russell, Daniel Salloi, Khiry Shelton and so forth are healthy, someone is outside the starting XI.
Yet SKC are at +200 odds in the Last to Score market in game prop bets, a 33.3% implied probability. This is a steal given those trends, since it doesn’t matter if that last goal changes the outcome or not.
Pick: Kansas City last to score (+200)
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