Ira L. Black – Corbis/Getty Images. Pictured: Caden Clark.
Chicago vs. RBNY Odds
| Chicago Odds | +138 |
| RBNY Odds | +185 |
| Draw | +245 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-155 / +112) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 6 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Saturday night via DraftKings. | |
Both the Chicago Fire and the New York Red Bulls should be desperate for a victory when they meet on Sunday at Soldier Field.
Chicago and New York are each winless in their last five, and both teams are on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture and looking in.
The Fire started the weekend second from bottom in the East but on the heels of a scoreless draw against fifth-place New York City FC.
The Red Bulls are in ninth following their own scoreless draw at home against 10th-place FC Cincinnati.
New York previously beat Chicago 2-0 at home in early May.
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Fire Adjust Without Frankowski
The Fire had won consecutive matches for the first time season. Then manager Raphael Wicky took a three-game leave of absence due to a family health emergency.
And while Chicago didn’t earn wins in either of the two games since his return, they gave improved performances in draws against Philadelphia and NYCFC.
If that counts as momentum, the question is if it carries over since the news of midfielder Przemyslaw Frankowski’s transfer to RC Lens in Ligue 1.
Frankowski was one of only two Fire players with multiple goals and assists (two each.) His 6.9 expected goals (xG) plus expected assists (xA) was second-most on the Fire behind striker Robert Beric.
The only complaint the Fire could have of his two-and-a-half years in MLS is that he underperformed his xG in all three seasons.
Goalkeeper Bobby Shuttleworth remains questionable with a knee injury after he missed Wednesday’s draw against NYCFC. Centerback Wyatt Omsberg returns after serving a one-match red card suspension on Wednesday.
RBNY: Winless In Last Five Tries
This young Red Bulls side may be winless in their last five matches, but they’ve only been two goals worse than their opponents over that stretch, drawing three games and losing two.
After narrow losses away to D.C. and home to Supporters’ Shield leaders New England, New York’s most frustrating result may have been their last.
Despite a near-monopoly on chances Wednesday evening, the Red Bulls were forced to settle for a 0-0 home draw against Cincinnati.
Manager Gerhard Struber’s men still have only five points from eight away trips, but they’ve played among the toughest road itineraries in MLS to date.
Seven of those eight matches have come against sides currently above the playoff line in their respective conferences.
Daniel Royer has been upgraded to questionable with a thigh injury. He has one goal and three assists in six appearances against the Fire, though he’d likely be limited to substitute duty after not playing since late May.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Not only have the Red Bulls’ away struggles come against the better teams in MLS, they’re also mostly confined to the early portion of the season.
With the improvement of Fabio and additions Frankie Amaya and Patryk Kilmala, New York are deeper — particularly in attack — than when they lost their first four on the road.
That’s especially important in these stretches. And it’s a clear edge against a Chicago squad that has lacked depth and will be one option shorter with Frankowski’s departure.
Argentine Federico Navarro will eventually give Wicky another choice in midfield but he probably won’t be available Sunday after the Fire announced his signing on the final day of the MLS secondary transfer window this week.
The three-way line reflects these teams’ respective places in the standings. The Fire are slightly favored due to home field but not as heavily as they would be in MLS against an even foe.
And given the circumstance mentioned above, I think the scales should be tilted further in the Red Bulls’ direction to where each team’s odds to win are nearly even.
I expect this to be close, so I’m forgoing the moneyline for a draw no bet wager on the Red Bulls at +112 odds. That implies a 47.2% probability that New York wins this game — if it’s not a draw.
If it is a draw, your bet is void and your money is returned.
Pick: Red Bulls, draw no bet (+112)
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