Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Glasnow
Since the beginning of last week, I have gone 11-1 on my MLB strikeout prop picks. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling on Tuesday.
With a full slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like today, both unders.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop-bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 40-31, +4.21 Units, +5.9% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Tyler Glasnow (TBR) — 8.5 Strikeouts (-110/-115)
| Yankees at Rays | Rays (-129) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
For strikeout total props, Tyler Glasnow is a fascinating pitcher. Up until this season, Glasnow had traditionally been a power pitcher who only lasts about five innings per start. This season, Glasnow is averaging 6 1/3 innings per start with a high strikeout rate.
For Monday’s game, Glasnow’s strikeout total has been set at 8.5 strikeouts. This season, Glasnow averages 6 1/3 innings and 8.87 strikeouts per start. Additionally, the opposing Yankees lineup averages 8.94 strikeouts per game, which is awfully close to the median MLB team. On the surface the over looks like a good bet.
However, when you look at Glasnow’s game log, it becomes clear that the under is the best bet. In his lone start against the Yankees this season, Glasnow lasted only five innings and had seven strikeouts. The other thing that pops out is that in seven of his 11 starts, Glasnow has gone six innings or less.
For Glasnow to continue going over his strikeout totals, the Rays must continue to give him more innings than they have in the past. At most, Glasnow should go six innings today as Tampa has a history of using their starting pitchers conservatively.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow (TBR) Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-115) (BetMGM) would play up to -130
- Action Labs Score: 8
- Kevin Davis Score: 3
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Robbie Ray (TOR) — 7.5 Strikeouts (-148/+115)
| Marlins at Blue Jays | Blue Jays (-162) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Like most of us, Robbie Ray is hoping that everyone forgets about 2020. Last year, Ray had a 2-5 record with a 6.62 ERA, and rarely lasted even five innings in his starts. This season, the old Robbie Ray is back as he has a 3.81 ERA, 3.40 xFIP, and is averaging more than 5 2/3 innings per start.
While in the past Ray has averaged around 12 strikeouts per nine innings, this season he is only averaging 10.38 strikeouts per nine innings. Over the course of a typical Ray start, that would equate to 6.66 strikeouts.
However, Ray is in luck because the opposing Miami Marlins are strikeout prone. The Fish average 9.07 strikeouts per game, which is 2.4% more than the median MLB team. When you adjust how many strikeouts Ray should have in a typical start to the Marlins’ lineup, he should only have 6.82 strikeouts.
At the current price, +115 on something that happens a little more than half of the time is a great bet to make. Ray is certainly a strong starting pitcher, but he is unlikely to have eight or more strikeouts.
Pick: Robbie Ray (TOR) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115) (DraftKings) would play up to -105
- Action Labs Score: 10
- Kevin Davis Score: 7
