David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Wily Peralta
After taking a good, long look at Tuesday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s two strikeout totals I’m targeting on the schedule.
Additionally, there’s a position player matchup that I believe provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Prop & Pick
Luis Patiño Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| Rays vs. Mariners | Rays -160 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
It’s rough to pay the juice here, but 6.5 is too high a number for Patiño. For two reasons:
First, because Patiño is coming off a six-inning shutout start against the Yankees where he punched out eight. So his stock is high right now.
Second, because the Mariners strike out a lot. Seattle’s struck out 24.4% of the time over the past 30 days, fourth-most in MLB.
Therefore, the prop market for Patiño was going to be high, and this is too high. Before his last outing, Patiño had struck out more than five batters in just one of his eight starts. He does average more than 10 Ks per nine innings, but he rarely pitches deep into games.
There’s a chance he pitches well today, but it would take another career outing for Patiño to reach seven strikeouts. Our Action Labs Props Tool is projecting him at 5.9 Ks, so there’s value on the under 6.5 number (even at -155).
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
Wily Peralta Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+125)
| Tigers vs. Red Sox | Tigers +125 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
After getting plugged into the rotation on June 19, Peralta logged five straight quality starts for Detroit. On July 18, he had a 1.64 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP.
However, it was clear he was due for regression, as both his xERA and xFIP were close to 5.00. And the regression train has pulled into Peralta station, as he’s allowed 11 earned over nine innings in his last two starts.
But I think he might be a tad undervalued in this start, mostly because he’s facing an overvalued Boston offense. The Red Sox boast a scary lineup, and one that should only get scarier as they get healthier (Xander Boegarts, Kyle Schwarber). But that lineup is vulnerable right now.
Over the past 30 days, the Red Sox have posted just a .733 OPS and a 97 wRC+, both numbers that are below MLB average in that timeframe. But, more importantly, they’ve posted the 10th-highest strikeout rate during this stretch (23.4%).
Our Action Labs Player Prop tool is projecting Peralta at 4.2 Ks today, and the over 3.5 at +125 severely undervalues Peralta and creates loads of value for bettors.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
| Braves vs. Cardinals | Braves -130 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Albies is heating up. He’s working on a six-game hit streak and is batting over .300 with an .826 OPS in his last 12. This is good for the Braves, who really need Albies to smack the ball if they’re to compete without Ronald Acuña Jr.
I think Albies could rake today. In 14 lifetime plate appearances against Jon Lester, Albies is 8-for-12 with a home run, two walks and zero strikeouts. Plus, his 95 mph average exit velocity and 13.1 degree average launch angle in those ABs has led to an xBA over .500 and a xSLG over .800.
This is somewhat predictable, considering Albies mashes lefties. This season, Albies is batting .333 with a .957 against that side (compared to just .242/.765 against the right side).
Plus, Lester is still throwing his four-seam fastball most of the time despite the fact it gets less effective with age. This season, Lester is allowing a .383 BA and a .605 SLG on 407 four-seamers thrown.
Albies is quite happy to hear that. He’s seen a whopping 615 four-seam fastballs in 2021, and he’s posted a .557 SLG, a .379 wOBA and a +8 run value on those pitches.
Therefore, I love Albies to snag a few bases in tonight’s matchup, and will happily bet it at close to even money.
