Will Newton/Getty Images. Pictured: Jesús Aguilar
After taking a good, long look at Monday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s one strikeout total I’m targeting on the schedule.
Plus, there’s a position player prop in tonight’s late game that provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Prop & Pick
Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| White Sox vs. Twins | White Sox -195 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Lucas Giolito isn’t as effective of a pitcher on the road, but he strikes out a lot more batters.
Gio’s had 11 home starts and 11 away starts, and he’s managed 70 innings at home but just 59 on the road. However, while he’s struck out 74 batters at home this season, he’s struck out 71 despite the fewer innings.
Giolito’s striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings on the road compared to just 9.5 on the road.
While Giolito is coming off one of his worst starts of the season — on the road against the Royals — I think he has a slightly better matchup against a depleted Twins roster. Plus, in the four starts before that disaster, Gioltio allowed just five earned in 26 1/3 innings while notching 27 strikeouts.
Our Action Labs Player Prop Tool is projecting Giolito at 7.2 punchouts today, giving us loads of value on the over 6.5 number DraftKings is offering us at plus money.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Jesús Aguilar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
| Marlins vs. Padres | Marlins +200 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
There’s no questioning Joe Musgrove’s effectiveness this season. However, it’s also fair to say he’s struggled in recent months.
Since July started, Musgrove has pitched to a 3.51 ERA and an xFIP over 4.00. Plus, his strikeouts are down (10.23 K/9 season, 8.91 K/9 since July 1) while his walks are up (2.35 season, 2.70 since July 1). Musgrove is still pitching very well by MLB standards, but the regression he was due has finally come.
Meanwhile, Jesús Aguilar is a bat that could further that regression. In 12 lifetime PAs against Musgrove, Aguilar is 4-for-8 with a double, two home runs and two walks to zero strikeouts. Plus, Aguilar has always squared up Musgrove’s pitches, as he’s notched a 95 mph average exit velocity that has produced a .537 xBA and a 1.222 xSLG.
Maybe it’s because Musgrove is a slider-heavy pitcher while Aguilar is a slider-heavy hitter. Musgrove throws his slider nearly a third of the time, and Aguilar has notched a .308 average and a .585 SLG on the pitch this season.
Moreover, over his past five games, Aguilar is 6-for-18 with five extra base hits to just two strikeouts. I love Aguilar to knock the ball around today, and think this prop has lots of value at big plus-money.
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