Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Wil Crowe
After taking a good, hard look at Tuesday’s matchups using the Action Labs Player Props tool, there’s two strikeout totals I’m targeting on the schedule — one under and one over.
Plus, there’s a position player prop I’ve found that both provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Joey Votto — 2+ Total Bases (-105)
| Reds vs. Cubs | Reds (-171) |
| Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | PointsBet |
Votto is my top prop play of the day.
He’s on a hot streak unlike anything we’ve seen from the 37-year-old Canadian. He’s batting .322 with a 1.142 OPS since July 1, compiling 47 base knocks and smashing 16 home runs in that 40-game stretch. He’s a big reason why the Reds are making a playoff push.
Votto will match up with a familiar face today in Kyle Hendricks, who’s coming off the worst start of his season (4 IP, 9 ER vs. MIL).
Votto is already 13-for-34 lifetime against Hendricks, with 13 walks to just 7 strikeouts, but he’s also posted a .777 xSLG and .527 xwOBA behind his 92.4-mph average exit velocity. However, there’s two reasons I really like his matchup today.
Hendricks primarily relies on four pitches: A sinker (41%), changeup (27.3%), four-seam fastball (18.3%), and curveball (13.4%). Well, here’s Votto’s season-long splits against those four pitches:
| BA | SLG | |
|---|---|---|
| Sinker | .414 | 0.810 |
| Changeup | .184 | .286 |
| Four-Seam | .315 | 0.730 |
| Curveball | .314 | .486 |
He’s completely smashed sinkers and four-seam fastballs this season, compiling a whopping +31 run value between the two pitches (+17 four-seam; +14 sinker). I was initially worried about his poor splits vs. changeups, but he’s performed better and better against that pitch as the season has gone on:
Like he’s done his entire career, Votto should take advantage of Hendricks in this matchup. If he doesn’t hit his bases total against Hendricks, however, he should have a pretty good shot against the depleted Cubs bullpen.
Bet big on Votto and enjoy his ABs today, because they’re a thing of beauty.
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Tyler Anderson — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
| Mariners vs. Rangers | Mariners (-160) |
| Time | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
This is primarily a play on the Rangers’ home offense. While they can’t really hit at home, the Rangers have been disciplined in that park.
Among home teams over the past 30 days, the Rangers have struck out just 19.8% of the time, good for fifth-lowest in MLB during that span. In their most recent home series (vs. Oakland), the Rangers struck out just 12 times in 109 PAs, adding up to just an 11% strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Anderson has hit over 5.5 strikeouts just twice in 11 starts since the beginning of May. In fact, he’s faced the Rangers twice in that span, recording just seven total strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings between both starts.
Anderson’s strikeout numbers do go up in road starts, but asking him to notch six total strikeouts against a very disciplined home offense is far too much to ask.
Our Action Labs tool projects Anderson will notch 5 Ks tonight, but FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections have Anderson at just 3.84 Ks. Either way, there’s value on the under 5.5 number, and that’s why I’m comfortable paying the juice.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Wil Crowe — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Pirates vs. Dodgers | Dodgers -300 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
I’m never afraid of fading the Dodgers’ offense. Their array of superstar bats scares the public into betting them, and it usually creates interesting, undervalued opportunities on the other side.
I see that in Wil Crowe today. The 26-year-old is making his 17th start, and frankly, he’s been bad. But, he’s also recorded 35 strikeouts over his last 34 innings, and those numbers really jump on the road:
| Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| Innings | 41 1/3 | 39 |
| Strikeouts | 31 | 44 |
| K/9 | 6.75 | 10.15 |
While Crowe’s posted a 6.23 road ERA, he shouldn’t have to pitch too many innings to cash the over tonight.
That becomes even more true when you consider the Dodgers’ offense. Among home teams over the past 30 days, the Dodgers have posted the eighth-highest strikeout rate in MLB (23.3%). The lineup may be scary, but the bats aren’t immune to swinging and missing.
Our Action Labs tool has Crowe projected at 5 strikeouts today, creating loads of value on the over 4.5 number being offered at plus-money.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
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