Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Tylor Megill
It’s Friday the 13th, but the Action Labs Player Props tool isn’t superstitious. Instead, it finds cold hard value.
And after taking a good, hard look at Friday’s matchups using our tool, there are two strikeout totals I’m targeting. Plus, there’s an additional position player prop that provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Adbert Alzolay — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
| Cubs vs. Marlins | Cubs (+105) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
If it weren’t for the Cubs offense, we’d all be talking about the Marlins strikeout issues issues. In recent weeks, Miami has been battling Chicago for the highest strikeout rate in MLB:
| Cubs K% | Marlins K% | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 7 Days | 37.5% (Highest) | 29.5% (Second highest) |
| Last 14 Days | 31.6% (Highest) | 27.1% (Second highest) |
| Last 30 Days | 27.4% (Highest) | 25.3% (Second highest) |
Alzolay won’t blow you away with his speed, but he’s got a live slider that opponents are whiffing on 36.4% of the time. His secondary pitch is a sinker, which hasn’t been good. But, I wouldn’t worry about that, considering just how awful the Marlins are against those two pitches. They’re weighted runs created against sliders is 19th in baseball and against sinkers is 26th in the league.
Alzolay is striking out just over nine batters per nine innings, but he’s recently posted seven Ks against the White Sox, eight against the Cardinals, five against the Phillies and six against the Reds.
Given Alzolay’s pitch arsenal and the Marlins penchant for punchouts, I love his chances to hit this number today.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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Tylor Megill — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Mets vs. Dodgers | Mets (+140) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
The Dodgers boast a big-name lineup that’s relatively disciplined. However, over the past 30 days, they’ve merely been league average, posting the 11th highest wRC+ (108) while striking out at the 16th highest rate (22.8%).
Megill hasn’t been average – he’s been much better. Since being called up in late June, Megill ranks among the top 10% of qualified pitchers in xERA (2.83), xBA (.196) and xwOBA (.260). More importantly, he’s been missing bats.
In fact, he’s been striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings. And in his nine starts this season, he’s failed to hit the over 4.5 number just twice. He struck out five over six innings against Toronto (second-lowest K% in MLB) and struck out seven over 3 2/3 against Pittsburgh (fifth-lowest K% in MLB).
Plus, he gets to face this Dodgers lineup at home, where he’s been virtually unhittable. At home this season, Megill has posted a 1.85 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP while striking out 29 batters in 24 1/3 innings pitched (10.72 K/9).
The Action Labs Player Props tool is projecting Megill with 5.8 strikeouts today, and FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections has him at 5.15. Meanwhile, BetMGM is offering us the over 4.5 number at plus-money – talk about value!
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
| Cardinals vs. Royals | Cardinals (-140) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
In his 11th MLB season, Goldy is continuing to smack the baseball around.
Over his past three series, he’s 10-for-33 with an .809 OPS. And since July started, he’s batting .315 with a .905 OPS. He’s cashed over 1.5 total bases in four of his last seven appearances, and seems to be the only bright spot in the depleted Cardinals lineup.
Meanwhile, in his 11th MLB season, Mike Minor is continuing to get beaten up. He boasts a 5.39 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP while getting barreled up at a nearly 10% rate and allowing an average exit velocity near 90 mph.
It’s obvious who has the upper hand in this matchup. And you shouldn’t be surprised when I tell you that Goldschmidt his 5-for-9 lifetime against Minor with a double and two home runs. Goldschmidt’s posted a 1.161 xSLG and a .666 xwOBA in those AB’s with a 98.9 mph average exit velocity on the batted balls.
Minor’s going to throw a low-90s four-seamer, and Goldschmidt is going to love that pitch. He’s posted a .314 xBA and a .625 xSLG on fastballs this season, and I’m expecting him to smack another one of Minor’s fastballs today for extra bases.
I love this prop at plus-money.
