Greg Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Erick Fedde
After taking a good, long look at Friday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s two strikeout totals I’m targeting on the schedule.
Unfortunately, no position player props today. However, I’m quite confident in these strikeout totals today, and my 23-9, +13.4 unit YTD prop record should convince you as well.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Prop & Pick
Ryan Yarbrough Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
| Rays vs. Orioles | Rays -160 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Ryan Yarbrough has hovered around 4.5 strikeouts for the past month, as he’s struck out between four and six batters per start in six straight outings.
Given he’s projected right around this line — our Action Labs tool has him at 4.8 today 3 it’s clear the value lies with the over. But I also think the Orioles’ offense has the capabilities to put Yarbrough over the top today.
Over the past 30 days, the Orioles are striking out at the eighth-highest clip in the league (23.9%) while posting the fifth-lowest wRC+ (90). Given his past few outings, Yarbrough will most likely strike out four, but he should be able to provide enough length and miss enough bats to punch out a few extra O’s.
And, that’s exactly what Yarbrough has done before. Here’s Yarbrough’s three starts against the Orioles this season:
- 5/19 @ BAL: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K
- 6/11 vs. BAL: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K
- 7/19 vs. BAL: 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K
Moreover, Yarbrough has fared well against O’s hitters in the past. While we don’t have a lineup card yet, here’s Yarbrough’s lifetime stats against a few notable Orioles:
- Yarbrough v. Cedric Mullins: 0-for-7, 2 BB, 36.4% whiff, 3 Ks
- Yarbrough v. Anthony Santander: 3-for-13, 2 2B, 1 BB, 26.5% whiff, 5 Ks
- Yarbrough v. Ryan Mountcastle: 3-for-12, 1 2B, 0 BB, 28.6% whiff, 3 Ks
- Yarbrough v. DJ Stewart: 1-for-7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 47.1% whiff, 3 Ks
I think Yarbrough will create a lot of strikeout opportunities today, and he’s proven he can capitalize against this lineup. I’ll happily play the over 4.5 number at plus-money today.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Erick Fedde Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Nationals vs. Braves | Nationals +155 |
| Time | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Fedde is coming off a start against the Cubs where he punched out eight in just six innings. But that was the depleted, strikeout-prone Cubs, and Fedde’s matchup today is going to be much more difficult.
The Braves have quietly been playing well recently. They’ve snuck within 1.5 games of the NL East lead, and it’s mostly thanks to a lineup that has posted a 109 wRC+ over the past month.
More importantly, the Braves’ bats have been quite disciplined. The Braves are striking out only 20.8% of the time over the past month — good for fifth lowest in MLB during that stretch. Additionally, they rank among the top-10 teams in weighted sinker runs created (1.2), so they should be able to make contact against Fedde, who throws a sinker half the time.
Fedde can put up crooked strikeout numbers, as he’s posted seven or more in five starts this season. However, he’s also inconsistent, and will punch out almost nobody when he’s not shoving. He’s also struck out three or fewer in six starts this season.
From what I can tell, Fedde will make the most of matchup advantages. But he simply doesn’t have those advantages today, and I’m willing to bet he posts four or fewer strikeouts today.
Our Action Labs tool has him projected at just 4.3 strikeouts, so I’m willing to play the under 4.5 number at -120 but no worse.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
