Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony DeSclafani
After taking a good, long look at Monday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s one strikeout total I’m targeting on the schedule.
Additionally, there’s a position player matchup that I believe provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Prop & Pick
Aaron Judge Most Bases v. Trey Mancini (-145)
| Yankees vs. Orioles | Yankees -265 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
For the sake of transparency, today is a difficult slate, which is why I’m turning to a prop category that I’m less comfortable with.
However, I do think there is some value in the chalk here.
Aaron Judge is 3-for-3 lifetime against Jorge López with two home runs and two walks. His 101 mph average exit velocity on these ABs has led to a 1.153 xSLG and a .672 xwOBA. Judge is a sinkerball killer (.333 BA, .509 SLG on sinkers this season) going up against a bad sinkerballer in López (.312 BA, .487 SLG allowed on sinkers this season).
Meanwhile, for all Trey Mancini’s successes this season, he hasn’t figured out Andrew Heaney. Mancini is 0-for-6 lifetime against Heaney with an 88.8 mph average exit velocity and a -2.6 average launch angle. It’s led to a .150 xBA and a .169 xwOBA.
Heaney relies on a fastball-curveball combination. This combo hasn’t been necessarily good, but Mancini has been poor against both pitches. He’s batting around .240 on the combo and has posted just a .283 wOBA against the curve.
Judge should feast today while Mancini should struggle. So, bet this prop at DraftKings, watch Judge smack the ball around, and look for Mancini to pile up a 0-fer.
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Anthony DeSclafani — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
| Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Giants -200 |
| Time | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
This is a pure value play. 5.5 is a tad high number for Anthony DeSclafani, but it’s absolutely worth a bet at +120 or better.
Like the rest of the Giants players, DeSclafani is having an unreal season. He’s posted a 3.10 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP this season while pitching between 5 2/3 and 6 innings per start.
While he strikes out fewer than nine batters per nine innings, I think he has a shot to record six today.
First: DeSclafani has dominated the Diamondbacks this season. In two starts against Arizona, DeSclafani has tossed 13 2/3 innings while allowing just three earned runs and striking out 12. He earned the win in both games.
Second: The Diamondbacks’ offense isn’t good. Over the past 30 days, they’ve recorded just a 92 wRC+ while striking out at the 10th-highest rate in MLB (23.6%). Considering their struggles recently and against DeSclafani this season, I wouldn’t be too high on Arizona today.
Look for “Disco” DeSclafani to dominate tonight. It’s possible he doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but I’m hoping he’ll give enough length tonight to sneak over the 5.5 and cash a big plus-money bet.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
