Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Sonny Gray #54 of the Cincinnati Reds.
I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Antonio Senzatela over 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies | Diamondbacks -114 |
| Time | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Antonio Senzatela has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. At 5.40 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), he ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in baseball in strikeout upside. Still, over 3.5 strikeouts simply too low to pass up.
In Senzatela’s last five starts, he has gone over this total in three times and has lasted at least five innings in four appearances.
Strikeout rates have been inflated early this season. Even without a pitch arsenal featuring true “swing and miss” stuff, Senzatela can still luck into four strikeouts.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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Lance McCullers Jr. under 6.5 Strikeouts (+111)
| Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers | Astros -200 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Lance McCullers has been terrific for the Astros, but regression might be in his near future. He boasts a 2.70 ERA, he also reports with a 3.54 xERA and 3.75 xFIP. His batting average against is .173 with a .263 wOBA, but his expected numbers are .215 xBA and .302 xwOBA.
Despite McCullers’ early-season success, he has stayed under this total in four of eight games, including his most recent outing against these Texas Rangers. He pitched well in that game, giving up five hits and no runs through six innings, but he also only struck out just batters.
After seeing McCullers just six days ago, I think the Rangers will have better success against him this time and knock him out of the game before he is able to clear 6.5 strikeouts.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
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Sonny Gray under 6.5 Strikeouts (+128)
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds | Reds -141 |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | SugarHouse |
After starting the year on the injured list with a back injury, Sonny Gray has now made six starts and is yet to earn a victory. He has accumulated a serviceable 3.86 ERA but has lasted at least six innings just once all season.
While Gray does have a high strikeout rate (11.57 K/9), he has not pitched deeply enough into games to consistently clear this 6.5-strikeout total. Gray has struck out seven or more batters in two of his six outings.
Great American Ballpark is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. On top of that, there will also be 7 mph winds blowing out today. The Brewers finally have Christian Yelich back in the lineup, and despite their struggles this season, I like them to do enough to knock Gray out of the game before reaches this total.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
