I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Tyler Mahle — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Reds vs. Cardinals||Reds -120|
|Time||2:15 p.m. ET|
The Reds have been led by their offense this season, but Tyler Mahle has probably been their best pitcher. He is 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA and .220 batting average against this year. In his last two starts, Mahle has allowed zero runs and just four total hits.
Mahle throws a fastball, splitter and slider, all with a K% over 20% this season. He has a 10.41 K/9 rate this season and is averaging 5.8 strikeouts per start. The St. Louis offense has been pretty pedestrian this season, ranking 20th in OPS and 24th in batting average.
In his first start of the season against St. Louis, Mahle had nine strikeouts in just five innings. I like him to have similar success in this game and go over his 5.5 strikeouts.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Joe Ross — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)
|Nationals vs. Phillies||Phillies -120|
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
Joe Ross has struggled for the Nationals this season. He is 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA in 10 starts this year. In his six starts during the month of May, Ross went 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA. Teams have a .265 xBA and .353 xwOBA against him this year.
Ross has not lasted deep into games, averaging just 4.8 innings per start this season. He has an 8.75 K/9, and in his 10 starts has stayed under 4.5 in five of them.
While the Phillies do strike out a lot, they are much better at home. With Scherzer pitching into the eighth inning last night, the bullpen is rested and will likely be turned to at the first sign of trouble here. I like Ross to go under this strikeout total.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Kevin Gausman — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
|Cubs vs. Giants
|Time||7:15 p.m. ET|
The San Francisco Giants have the best record in baseball, and Kevin Gausman and the rest of the Giants pitching staff are the mains reason why. Gausman is a dominant 6-0 with a 1.40 ERA this season. He has been lights out recently, going 5-0 with a 0.73 ERA over his last six starts.
Gausman enters the game having not allowed a run in three straight starts, and hasn’t allowed more than one run in eight straight outings. His splitter has been unhittable, allowing just a .136 average and generating a 44% K%.
In the last five starts, Gausman has gone over 6.5 K’s in all of them, including averaging 8.6 K’s over his last five starts. The Cubs have been hitting the ball well lately, but they have the 10th highest K% in the league.
Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in the league all season and I am buying him to keep it going and go over this total on Saturday night.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10