Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Castillo.
Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing for Sunday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Nick Pivetta — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
| Red Sox vs. Phillies | Red Sox -124 |
| Time | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
After a fantastic start to the season, and his career in Boston, Pivetta cooled off considerably during late May and June. But he bounced back with his best start of the season his last time out, tossing seven innings and allowing no runs while striking out 10.
Two games before that, Pivetta had a no hitter into the seventh inning but was pulled before allowing a hit due to a high pitch count. He fanned eight in that one.
Even when he has struggled, the strikeouts have still been there. Pivetta has averaged 6.4 strikeouts per start and has gone over this total in 12 of his 17 starts and nine of the last 10.
Now, Pivetta gets to face his former team that gave up on him after three seasons and traded him to Boston. Back an extra motivated Pivetta on Sunday.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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Jameson Taillon — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+118)
| Yankees vs. Astros | Astros -136 |
| Time | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Jameson Taillon is coming off his best outing of the season for the Yankees. He threw seven innings, allowing just one earned run and striking out nine.
While Taillon hasn’t had the best season and has struggled to a 5.05 ERA, his 4.21 xERA and 4.29 xFIP suggest better results could be coming. He also has a 9.63 K/9, which would be the best of his career.
For Taillon, this total is going to come down to how long he lasts in the game. He has totaled at least five strikeouts in 10 of his 16 starts but is averaging just 4.8 innings per outing.
If he can last a full five frames, Taillon should be able to hit this total. The Houston offense has gone ice cold over the last two weeks and just struck out 12 times against Gerrit Cole last night.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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Luis Castillo — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-114)
| Reds vs. Brewers | Brewers -155 |
| Time | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Another week, another fading of Luis Castillo.
In 18 starts this season, Castillo is 3-10 with a 4.81 ERA. Opponents are batting .259 against him with a .320 wOBA.
After posting an 11.44 K/9 rate this season, that has dropped to an 8.32 K/9 this season. Castillo’s best strikeout pitch was always his changeup, registering a K% over 40%in each of the last four seasons. However, this season his changeup has just a 26.4 K%.
Castillo averages just five strikeouts per game and has stayed under this number in 13 of his 18 starts.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
