Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Lance Lynn.
I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Aaron Nola — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
| Phillies vs. Giants | Giants -115 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Phillies ace Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in the league for a few seasons now. However, he has had a bit of a down season for his standards. Nola is just 5-4 with a 3.69 ERA in 14 starts.
With a 10.19 K/9 though, his strikeout rate is still in line with career numbers, and his 27.6 K% would be the second best of his career, behind last season. Nola is coming off his second best outing of the season, pitching into the eighth inning and holding the Yankees to just three hits and no runs while fanning nine.
In 14 starts this season, Nola averages 5.9 innings and 6.7 strikeouts per start. As good as San Francisco has been offensively, they do strike out the ninth most in the league. If Nola can pitch into the sixth inning, he should go over this total.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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Alex Wood — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
| Giants vs. Phillies | Giants -115 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
I will also back the over for Nola’s opponent with San Francisco’s Alex Wood. Wood is part of the long list of Giants pitchers having a great season. He is 6-3 with a 3.71 ERA and has held opponents to two or fewer runs in eight of his 11 starts this season.
Sure, Wood isn’t exactly known as a strikeout guy, but his 8.71 K/9 rate is solid enough for this spot. His slider has been brilliant this season, allowing just a .140 batting average and totaling a 41.3 K% this season. Forty-five of his 61 strikeouts have come with his slider.
The Phillies have the sixth highest strikeout rate in the league this season, and they really struggle against sliders. Wood has lasted at least six innings in seven of his 11 starts this season and five of his six starts at home. He averages 5.5 strikeouts per start this season but 6.5 per home start.
Back Wood to go over this total at home in what hopefully turns into a pitcher’s duel.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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Lance Lynn — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)
| White Sox vs. Astros |
Astros -130 |
| Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Let’s make it an over hat trick and have a fun and positive Saturday night. Look, I know the Astros are probably the best offense in baseball. I know they strike out fewer than any team in the league. I know it is scary to fade them. But this number is still too low for Lance Lynn.
Lynn has been brilliant this season, sporting a 7-2 record and 1.51 ERA, good for second in the league behind only that Jacob deGrom guy. In 12 starts this season, Lynn has allowed more than two earned runs just twice.
About as trustworthy as the come right now, Lynn has gone at least five innings in 11 straight starts. He has a 10.05 K/9 rate this season and is averaging 6.7 strikeouts per start this year. He has gone over this total in nine of his 12 starts this season, and I like him to do it again on Saturday.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
