Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Andrew Albers #77 of the Minnesota Twins.
After taking a good, hard look at Friday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player props tool, I’ve found two strikeout totals on the card that provide value.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, so I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Matt Manning — Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+130)
| Tigers vs. Blue Jays | Tigers (+150) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
2.5 strikeouts is an insanely low line, normally a line I wouldn’t consider touching. But if there was ever a situation where this under would hit, this is it.
I think Manning is an intriguing young arm with lots of potential. While his numbers aren’t “good”, they are also inflated by a couple of blowup starts (9 ER in 3.2 IP vs. Cleveland at home; 6 ER in 4.0 vs. Cleveland on the road). Generally, Manning churns out quality start after quality start.
However, he’s a pure pitch-to-contact pitcher. Manning pairs his 16.2% whiff rate — 18th lowest among qualified pitchers — with a 4.89 K/9. As such, he’s struck out three or less batters in eight of his 11 starts this season.
His opponent today will be the Blue Jays lineup, which refuses to strike out. Over the past 30 days, the Blue Jays have struck out at the lowest rate in MLB (18.9%). On the season, the Blue Jays whiff at the seventh lowest rate (24.9%) while ranking third in zone contact rate (83.4%).
Our Action Labs Player Props tool is projecting Manning at just 2.3 strikeouts tonight, and given the situational matchup, I think it’s worth taking a shot at the under 2.5 number at big plus money.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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Andrew Albers — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-172)
| Twins vs. Brewers | Twins (+114) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Albers has had an interesting professional career. From pitching rookie ball with the Padres in 2008, to playing Korean ball in 2014, to making six starts with the Mariners in 2017, and now ending up back in Minnesota after a four-year absence.
Well, he’s made 15 Triple-A starts with the St. Paul Saints and one MLB start with the Twins. He didn’t show a penchant for punchouts in his Minor League starts (7.71 K/9 in Triple-A this season), and he managed just four against the strikeout-prone Yankees in his 2021 MLB debut.
While the Yankees have posted the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB this month (25.4%), Albers’ opponent today — the Brewers — are going to be much more difficult to strike out. Over the past 30 days, the Brewers have posted the second lowest strikeout rate in MLB (19.2%).
I’m uncertain of how Albers will perform in just his second start this season, especially since he allowed just a .111 BABIP against the Yankees over four innings. Even if he does pitch well, I’m uncertain that he’ll pitch deep into the game. And if even he does pitch deep into the game, I’m uncertain he’ll force enough swings-and-misses to hit this number.
All-in-all, there are too many questions surrounding Albers in today’s matchup, and i’m happy to fade him in that circumstance.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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