John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Freddy Peralta
It’s the perfect day to dive into some MLB player props. And using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve identified two strikeout total that provides value, including one under and one over.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade underneath the explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Matt Manning Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| Tigers vs. Pirates | Tigers (+100) |
| Time | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
I love Matt Manning. He’s a great young arm who offers a lot of upside for an up-and-coming Detroit team.
However, he’s a pitch-to-contact guy, as he’s striking out just five batters per nine innings this season. Additionally, he’s hit over 3.5 strikeouts in just four of his 13 total starts — a lousy 31% hit rate.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are nothing if not disciplined. They’re striking out at the eighth-lowest rate in MLB this season (22.3%) and at the ninth-lowest rate vs. RHPs (22.3%). They might not make quality contact against Manning, but they should make contact in this game.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool has Manning pinned at just 2.4 strikeouts today, and I’ll happily play the under 3.5 number DraftKings is offering.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Brewers vs. Phillies | Brewers (-155) |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
This is a Freddy Peralta fan column.
Peralta is easily one of the best pitchers in MLB, with a combination of basic and advanced stats that can rival any top-tier starter.
More importantly, however, is that he’s struck out over 5.5 batters in 20 of his 24 starts this season. This gives us a plus-money prop that’s hit at 83% on the season.
There are a few concerns, notably that the Phillies haven’t been striking out much lately (fifth-lowest rate vs. RHPs over last 30 days) and that Peralta has had a few tough starts (under 5.5 strikeouts in four of last six starts).
However, when Peralta faced the Phillies earlier this season, he punched out eight batters over just four innings.
Today, our Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected for eight strikeouts. I like him to hit the over 5.5 number DraftKings is offering us, and think the price makes it a great value bet.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
