Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Marco Gonzales
With a slate 13 games, there are many props to choose from on Monday’s Major League Baseball card.
There are two strikeout props that I like, an over and an under.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop-bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 46-41, -0.25 Units, -0.2% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
JT Brubaker (PIT) — 4.5 Strikeouts (-118/-108)
| Pirates at Nationals | Nationals (-124) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been dreadful this season, posting a 23-41 record and sitting in last place in the NL Central. Lost in the shuffle, though, is how well starting pitcher JT Brubaker has performed this season. After a decent rookie season in 2020, Brubaker has a 4-5 record with a 3.90 ERA, 3.55 xFIP and 0.6 WAR. With a decent strikeout rate and a propensity for pitching deep into games, can Brubaker go over his modest 4.5 strikeout total on Monday night?
Brubaker averages about 5 2/3 innings per start this season. He has a strikeout rate of 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He averages 5.64 strikeouts per start.
The issue for Brubaker on Monday will be Washington’s lineup. The opposing Nationals average only 3.76 runs per game, which is the third-worst in the league. However, despite the lack of run production, they are one of the most disciplined teams at the plate. The median lineup has 8.74 strikeouts per game. Washington averages only 8.53 strikeouts, which is the seventh-best in the league.
When I adjusted Brubaker’s strikeout projection to Washington’s lineup, his strikeout projection decreased from 5.64 strikeouts to 5.35. The Action Labs model projects Brubaker to have 5.4 strikeouts. With the total set at only 4.5 strikeouts, the over is the play for tonight’s game.
Pick: JT Brubaker Over 4.5 Strikeouts -118 (FanDuel) would play up to -130
- Action Labs Score: 8
- Kevin Davis Score: 7
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Marco Gonzales (SEA) — 5.5 Strikeouts (+116/-148)
| Twins at Mariners | Twins -138 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Marco Gonzales is a mediocre starting pitcher for a mediocre Seattle Mariners team. However, for pitcher strikeout props, he is fascinating. Last year, Gonzales had a 7-2 record, 3.10 ERA and a low strikeout total. Despite the low strikeout total, he was great for overs because he averaged 6 1/3 innings per start.
This season, Gonzales has a 1-4 record a 5.45 ERA, 4.78 xFIP and 0.1 WAR. As a result of Gonzales’ declining performance, he is averaging around five innings per start.
With a strikeout rate of only 7.68 strikeouts per nine innings, Gonzalez has a particularly low strikeout rate in comparison to most other starting pitchers this season. In a typical game this season, Gonzalez averages about five innings and 4.44 strikeouts.
The opposing Minnesota Twins’ lineup averages 8.75 strikeouts per game, which is only .01 strikeouts more than the median team. Despite their struggles this season, the Twins’ lineup is still averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is more than the league average of 4.41. With a strong lineup that is not more strikeout prone than usual, Gonzales should go under his strikeout total in tonight’s game.
Pick: Marco Gonzales Under 5.5 Strikeouts -148 (FanDuel) would play up to -165
- Action Labs Score: 7
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
