Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Foltynewicz
With a full slate of baseball games, there are many props to choose from on Monday’s Major League Baseball card.
The betting markets have efficiently set most of the strikeout prop totals today. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like, both overs.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 56-47, +1.47 Units, 1.4% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
José Ureña (DET) — 2.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
| Tigers at Indians | Indians (-190) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Any time a starting pitcher in a non-opener role has a strikeout total set at only 2.5 strikeouts, the over must be considered. Typically, the range of strikeout totals set by the markets is between 3.5 and 8.5.
For José Ureña, the strikeout total has been set at only 2.5 strikeouts for good reason. Ureña has been an unmitigated disaster this season on a Detroit Tigers team that themselves are an unmitigated disaster. Ureña averages around five innings per start, which is typical for starting pitchers this season. Can he reach this low total?
Ureña is averaging 5.48 strikeouts per nine innings. In a typical start, he lasts five innings and has 3.04 strikeouts.
For a pitcher like Ureña to go over his strikeout total, he typically must face a strikeout-prone team. The Indians averages only 8.24 strikeouts per game, which is the fourth-fewest in MLB. The median lineup averages 8.85 strikeouts per game. That said, when you adjust Ureña’s strikeout total to Cleveland’s lineup, he should still have three strikeouts tonight.
Even against a disciplined Indians lineup, it is unrealistic to expect them to have fewer than 2.5 strikeouts against Ureña. At -165 the odds may be steep, but I would be willing to play it up to -180.
Pick: José Ureña Over 2.5 Strikeouts -165 (BetMGM) would play up to -180
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
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Mike Foltynewicz (TEX) 3.5 Strikeouts (-128/+102)
| Rangers at Athletics | Athletics (-190) |
| Time | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Mike Foltynewicz has been one of the weakest starting pitchers on a weak Texas Rangers rotation this season. In 15 starts, Foltynewicz has a 1-7 record with a 5.40 ERA and has been worth -0.2 WAR. He has a low strikeout rate, however, he has a 4.94 xFIP which is slightly better than his ERA and he averages 5 1/3 innings per start.
Foltynewicz has a strikeout rate of 6.30 per nine innings and is averaging around 5 1/3 innings per start. On a typical night, Foltynewicz should have 3.73 strikeouts. However, in the past Foltynewicz could be relied upon to have around eight strikeouts per nine innings. If Foltynewicz reverts to his old strikeout rate, he should have 4.74 strikeouts in a typical night.
The Athletics’ lineup has decent plate discipline, but they only have 2.8% more strikeouts per game than the median MLB lineup. With such a low strikeout total for a pitcher who can be counted on to pitch for at least five innings, the over is worth a shot on Foltynewicz, and I would bet it up to -150.
Pick: Mike Foltynewicz Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-128) (FanDuel) would play up to -150
- Action Labs Score: 5
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
