Ron Schwane/Getty Images. Pictured: Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Eli Morgan.
After a 2-0 day yesterday and a good, long look at today’s MLB slate using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve found two more strikeout totals that provide value.
Today, we’re playing an over that has a big value edge, and an under that’s hit at a high rate throughout the season.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Eli Morgan Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
| Indians vs. Brewers | Indians (+120) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
With our Action Labs Player Props tool projecting Morgan at 5.2 strikeouts, it gives us a huge edge on the over 3.5 number. Even FanGraphs SaberSim projections, which are often much more conservative, have Morgan pegged at over four strikeouts tonight.
The Brewers don’t Whiff a ton, but they have posted the 10th highest strikeout rate vs. RHPs this season (24.4%). Meanwhile, Morgan has hit over 3.5 strikeouts in nine of his 14 starts, and he’s only getting stronger as the season progresses:
As the strikeout rates on his pitches have jumped, Morgan has hit over 3.5 strikeouts in three of his last four starts. That includes eight strikeouts in a start against Minnesota, and another seven strikeouts in a start against Boston.
This is one of the best prop plays on the MLB card today, and I like Morgan over 3.5 at -150 or better.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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Framber Valdez Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)
| Astros vs. Angels | Astros (-200) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Over the past month, the Angels lineup has hit poorly (80 wRC+) while striking out a whole lot (23.8%) against RHPs.
But, this line is just too high. Valdez is striking out about eight batters per nine innings this season, meaning he’d have to pitch a whole lot of innings to hit this number.
Although he does average about 6 1/3 innings per start, which is an impressive feat for any pitcher, Valdez has still been unable to cash this number. Valdez has hit over 6.5 strikeouts in just five of his 18 starts this season, good for a 28% hit rate.
Valdez averages about 5.7 strikeouts per start, and our Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected at 5.8 tonight. So, take the value and play the under 6.5 number FanDuel is offering.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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