Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Flaherty
Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets I’m playing for Tuesday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Dylan Cease — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
| White Sox vs. Blue Jays | Blue Jays (-125) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
When Dylan Cease is on, he looks dominant. He has tossed five scoreless outings and racked up double-digit strikeouts six times. He has also had some clunkers, allowing five or more runs on four occasions.
Altogether, Cease has made 25 starts and is 9-6 with a 4.06 ERA. He ranks in the top-third of the league in xwOBA, xBA, and xERA. He ranks in the top 15% of the league in K%. Cease has been able to generate an 11.71 K/9 rate this season and has three pitches with a Whiff% above 40%.
His main strikeout pitch has been his slider, which opponents are whiffing on 46.9% of the time, and his curveball and changeup have also been great swing-and-miss tools to pair with his 97-mph fastball.
Toronto has one of the best offenses in the league and rarely strikes out. It is a little scary to bet on the Blue Jays to whiff, but that is why this number is so low for Cease. He is averaging 6.8 strikeout per start and has gone over this total in 18 of his 25 starts.
The only team to strike out less frequently than the Blue Jays is Houston, and Cease punched out 10 in his last start against the Astros. He is good enough when he is on to reach this total against any offense.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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Jack Flaherty — Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)
| Cardinals vs. Tigers | Cardinals (-245) |
| Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Jack Flaherty has dealt with injuries this season but when he is healthy, he is one of the game’s best pitchers. He is 9-1 on the year with a 2.68 ERA and teams are batting just .188 against him. Those marks would all be the best of his career.
However, Flaherty does have a slightly concerning xERA more than full run higher at 4.14. He also has an xwOBA (.311) higher than his wOBA (.259), and is allowing a career-high 40% HardHit%. His HardHit%, xERA and xwOBA all rank in the bottom-half of the league.
The other concern for Flaherty is his strikeout rate has dropped this year. After sitting with a K/9 rate above 10.6 for the last three seasons, he holds a 9.73 K/9 this season. His slider generated a 49.5% Whiff% last year but that has dropped to 39.2% this year.
Flaherty is still an elite pitcher and one of the game’s best, but this number is a tick too high for him. He has averaged just 6.1 strikeouts per start this season and has stayed under this total in 10 of his 13 starts on the year. I’ll play Flaherty to stay under this number.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
