Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell.
With a full slate of baseball games, there are many props to choose from on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball card.
Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like, both unders.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 49-46, -3.32 Units, -3.5% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Charlie Morton (ATL) — 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
| Braves at Mets | Braves (-108) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Last week I bet Charlie Morton to go under his strikeout total based on the rationale that the Braves are likely to rely on him for only five innings. Unfortunately, he pitched a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and as a result, Atlanta left him in the game long enough to pitch 7 2/3 innings. The question for Tuesday night’s game against the Mets is if Morton can get that type of usage again.
After winning the NL East last year, the Atlanta Braves have been a disappointment this season as they have a 34-37 record. The reason why the Braves have a losing record is due to their pitching as they have one of the best lineups in the National League.
One of the few bright spots in Atlanta’s starting rotation has the 37-year-old Morton. This season Morton has a 6-3 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 3.56 xFIP. Additionally, he has a decent strikeout rate of 10.02 strikeouts per nine innings. Morton averages only around 5 1/3 innings per start.
The median MLB lineup averages 8.81 strikeouts per game this season. The opposing New York Mets lineup averages only 8.48 strikeouts per game which is the ninth lowest in the league. Morton averages 5.9 strikeouts per start. However, when you look at Morton’s recent body of work before his last start, it is doubtful that he will pitch enough innings to go over his strikeout total.
In Morton’s previous three starts, he pitched at most for only five innings. Even at a steep cost of -140, the under at 6.5 strikeouts is a good bet. I may like the Braves first five innings moneyline because of Morton (I even wrote a story about it), but I am doubtful that Morton can pitch enough innings to go over his strikeout total against New York’s lineup.
Pick: Charlie Morton Under 6.5 Strikeouts -140 | Would play up to -150
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
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Blake Snell (SDP) — 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-141)
| Dodgers at Padres | Dodgers -112 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This offseason the San Diego Padres traded for Blake Snell from the Tampa Bay Rays. Since arriving in San Diego, Snell has a 5.72 ERA and is only averaging around 4 1/3 innings per start. However, Snell has a strikeout rate of 12.47 strikeouts per nine innings. As a pitcher with a low usage and a high strikeout rate, the question is how many strikeouts Snell should have tonight.
The opposing Los Angeles Dodgers lineup averages 8.9 strikeouts per game which is slightly worse than the median MLB team which is averaging 8.81 strikeouts per game. With the Dodgers not being exceptionally undisciplined at the plate, Snell will have to pitch more innings than usual to go over his total.
In only two of his last eight starts, Snell has pitched for five or more innings. In a typical game this season, Snell only averages six strikeouts. Based on Snell’s recent body of work, I believe that Snell is likely to go under his total again.
Pick: Blake Snell Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-141) | Would play up to -160
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 4
