Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Gibson (left) and Corbin Burnes.
After taking a good, hard look at Wednesday’s matchups using the Action Labs Player Props tool, there are two strikeout totals I’m targeting.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Prop & Pick
Kyle Gibson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
| Phillies vs. Dodgers | Dodgers -135 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Kyle Gibson has been pitching above his means all season. While he’ll have a challenge with the Dodgers today, I think he’s up to the task.
In his first two starts with the Phillies, Gibson pitched 12 2/3 innings while allowing only three runs and striking out eight. That strikeout number is low, but it was against the Pirates and Mets, both teams that have been far more disciplined than the Dodgers in recent weeks.
Over the past 30 days, the Dodgers have struck out at the 12th-highest rate in MLB at 23.4%. Plus, they’ve struck out more than four times against the last three starters they faced. That includes Aaron Nola (seven), Reid Detmers (five) and Jaime Barria (five).
If those three can put up those strikeout numbers, Gibson is certainly capable of doing so. The Action Labs Player Props tool has Gibson projected at 5.2 strikeouts tonight, creating good value on the over 4.5 number.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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Corbin Burnes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Brewers vs. Cubs | Brewers -265 |
| Time | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
I don’t have to tell you just how good Burnes is. He’s really the only pitcher in baseball who can compete with deGrom’s expected statistics, as he’s posted a 1.86 xERA and a 2.10 xwOBA.
Because of how talented he is, Burnes can always cash his strikeout overs by either missing a lot of bats or pitching deep into the game.
Tonight against the Cubs, he can do both.
Over the past 30 days, the Cubs offense has been striking out at the highest rate in MLB (26.7%) while posting the fifth lowest wRC+ (88). This depleted Cubs roster can’t hit the broad side of a barn, and I’m expecting a lot of whiffs against the elite Burnes today.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool has Burnes projected at 8.5 strikeouts today, again providing value on the over 7.5 number.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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