Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Gilbert
There’s lots of value in Tuesday’s loaded slate, and using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve found three rock-solid plays and one heavy lean.
There’s three strikeout totals I’m eyeing on the card plus a position player prop that provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Prop & Pick
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases (-135)
| Reds vs. Bravees | Reds -110 |
| Time | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
While he’s just 3-for-19 since returning from injury, we all know just how dangerous Nick Castellanos can be. And today, Castellanos gets to face the very un-dangerous Drew Smyly.
Smyly has a winning record thanks to Atlanta’s offense backing him up, but he’s not a very effective pitcher. The southpaw relies on a low-90s four-seamer which he throws nearly half the time while allowing a BA over .300 and a SLG above .500. As such, he’s posted a 4.91 xERA and a 1.41 WHIP overall this season.
Meanwhile, Castellanos smashes fastballs. He first posted an xwOBA over .400 against four-seamers in 2016 and hasn’t dropped below that number since:
This season, Castellanos has notched a .323 BA and a .677 SLG against the four-seam while producing a +10 run value.
So it’s clear Castellanos has the upper hand today, and he’s taken advantage of this mismatch in the past. In 15 lifetime PAs against Smyly, Castellanos is 6-for-13 with four doubles and just one strikeout.
Plus, since he whiffed just 6.7% of the time and posted a 94.3 mph average exit velocity in those AB’, he has a .360 xBA and a .581 xSLG against Smyly in his career.
Therefore, when Smyly grooves another four-seamer to Castellanos today, look for Nick to square it up. And if he doesn’t manage two bases against Smyly, Castellanos should be able to snag a hit off an ineffective Braves bullpen.
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Daniel Lynch Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)
| Royals vs. Yankees | Royals +130 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
After a disastrous first stint in early May, Daniel Lynch is having more success in his second time being called up. The Royals’ No. 2 prospect has recorded three straight quality outings, allowing only four earned while pitching 19 innings.
Unfortunately, he’s facing a sleeping giant today. The Yankees’ revamped offense has been killing pitchers over the past month, but they’ve been especially damaging against southpaws.
Over the past 30 days, the Yankees have posted a .363 wOBA and a 133 wRC+ against LHPs — both numbers that rank second in MLB during that stretch. Moreover, while the Yankees are prone to striking out (23.6 K% over past 30 days, ninth in MLB), they’re much more disciplined against the left side (22.4 K% vs. LHPs over past 30 days, 15th in MLB).
Lynch is coming off his best start of his young career — allowing one earned and notching 7 Ks over five innings against the White Sox — but that just means his stock his high, and in my opinion, overvalued.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool has Lynch projected at 3.7 strikeouts today, giving us good value on the under 4.5 number.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
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Logan Gilbert Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-176)
| Mariners vs. Rangers | Mariners -225 |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
It’s rare I would recommend a play this juiced, but FanDuel is offering this 7.5 number on Logan Gilbert, and my research and the Action Labs projections are suggesting there’s value on the under. Therefore, we should bet the line.
Gilbert has shown flashes of brilliance this season and has proved he can hit this number. However, here are his two outings against Texas this season:
- 7/2 vs. TEX: 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K
- 7/30 @ TEX: 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K
Despite the fact they’ve posted the eighth-highest strikeout rate in MLB since July 1 (23.6%), the Rangers have gotten to Gilbert both in Texas and at Seattle. Moreover, despite two relatively lengthy outings by Gilbert’s standard (he’s averaged just 4 2/3 innings per start this season), he couldn’t manage to get over this number on either occasion.
Eight strikeouts is a lot to ask from Gilbert, and it’s something he’s accomplished in just two of his 14 starts this season. As such, our Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected at just 5.2 strikeouts today, giving us loads of leverage on the 7.5 number despite the odds.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Worthy of Consideration
Nestor Cortes Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-104)
| Yankees vs. Royals | Yankees -154 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Cortes has posted close to 10 strikeouts per nine this season, and the Royals have posted just a 72 wRC+ against RHPs this season. As such, Cortes should be in for a solid outing against a weaker offense.
So, this is the Action Labs top player prop for the day, wherein we have him projected for 5.0 strikeouts while DraftKings has over 3.5 posted at -104 — good for an 18.2% edge. Plus, Swish Analytics gives today’s umpire Bill Miller a 1.19x K boost, indicating Cortes has an edge in the strikeout department.
But I’m hesitant for one reason: The Royals are tough to punch out in Kansas City. They’ve posted just a 20.6% strikeout rate at home, both season-long and over the past 30 days. Plus, the Royals bats are infinitely more effective when they’re at home, and it’s led to a 28-26 home record this season.
There’s value on the over at this number, but Kauffman Stadium scares me. As such, I am leaning heavily towards this play but will most likely avoid.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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