Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher David Price.
It’s been a good week for my Major League Baseball props at The Action Network, as I’m 6-2 for pitcher and position player props since Monday.
And after taking a good, long look at Friday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s two more strikeout totals I’m targeting on the card.
Our tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Wily Peralta — Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Tigers vs. Royals | Royals (-130) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Tigers have been quite the competent baseball team recently, and Wily Peralta has been more than adequate since starting his first game on June 19.
Peralta began with a couple of rough outings against the Royals and Angels, but has since churned out four excellent starts:
- 6/30 @ CLE: 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 5 K, 0 BB
- 7/5 @ TEX: 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 6 K, 0 BB
- 7/11 @ MIN: 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 K, 2 BB
- 7/18 vs. MIN: 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 K, 4 BB
For those counting, that’s a 0.38 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over a 24-inning span. Detroit went 3-1 in those starts.
I like Peralta to have another excellent start, as the Royals have posted just an 87 wRC+ over the past 30 days. That’s good for 25th in baseball during that stretch. Kansas City is quite disciplined (22 K%, which is fifth best overall), but I’m expecting Peralta to have a lot of opportunities in a long start against a struggling offense.
The Action Labs prop tool has Peralta projected at 4.2 strikeouts, so there’s a whole lot of value on the over 2.5 mark.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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David Price — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
| Rockies vs. Dodgers | Dodgers (-280) |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
With all the rotation issues the Dodgers are going through right now, they’re lucky they can move a former Cy Young winner from the bullpen into the starting rotation.
However, exactly how lucky? Price has a 3.12 ERA and has kept his average exit velocity (86.9 mph) and barrel percentage (3.7%) way down. However, he’s allowed a whopping 1.56 WHIP so far this season and the Dodgers have lost his last two starts.
Los Angeles has used Price as an opener at times this season, and they’re starting to bump up his innings a bit, but he still hasn’t pitched more than four in any appearance this year. Plus, he’s doing so while pitching to more contact than ever before, as his 22 K percentage is his lowest since 2013.
Even with reports that Price will increase his pitch count, I’m wary he’ll amass enough opportunities to cash over 4.5 strikeouts. The Rockies are a terrible offense and vulnerable on the road, but they’ve been quite disciplined of late In fact, the Rockies have posted the second-lowest strikeout rate (19.8%) in MLB over the past 30 days.
That’s why our Action Labs props tool is projecting Price at just four strikeouts, which has me seeing plenty of value on the under 4.5 total.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
