Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Paddack
Over the last two days I am 4-0 on my MLB strikeout prop picks. We’ll hope to keep that momentum rolling today with two more picks.
With a full slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Unsurprisingly, most of the pitcher props have been efficiently set for today’s slate. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like today, both unders.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 33-30, -1.75 Units, -2.8% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Griffin Canning (LAA) 6.5 Strikeouts (+128/-164)
| Rangers vs. Angels | Angels -118 |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
The Rangers’ lineup averages 9.74 strikeouts per game which is the fourth-worst in the league. The median team strikes out 8.86 times per game, so the Rangers strike out 9.9% more often than the median team.
Griffin Canning is an OK pitcher, but is OK good enough today? Canning may have a 5.56 ERA, but he also has a 4.21 xFIP. Canning’s abilities are not enough to make the Angels heavy favorites, but they are decent enough that they have a chance when he pitches.
For strikeout props, most importantly for our purposes, Canning averages fewer than 4 2/3 innings per start. He has a career high strikeout rate of 10.06 strikeouts per nine innings. Even if Canning throws at his current strikeout rate over 4 2/3 innings, he would have 5.22 strikeouts per game.
If you adjust Canning’s strikeout total for the Rangers’ lineup and their high total, he still has just 5.74 strikeouts in a typical start against the Rangers. The juice on the under is high at -164, but the juice is worth the squeeze?
For Canning to go over his total, he must go deeper than usual and/or strike out more batters than has been typical for him throughout his career. That is why the under is the best bet. Even betting on under 5.5 strikeouts at plus money is a good bet, but I prefer the total at 6.5 strikeouts even though I am paying a premium.
Pick: Griffin Canning (LAA) Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-164) (FanDuel) would play up to -180
- Action Labs Score: 9 (Based on Under 5.5 Strikeouts +110)
- Kevin Davis Score: 8
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Chris Paddack (SD) 5.5 Strikeouts (-106/-122)
| Padres vs. Brewers | Padres -134 |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
The Milwaukee Brewers average 9.66 strikeouts per game, which is the fifth-most in the league.
On Wednesday night, they face Chris Paddack, a pitcher who doesn’t frequently throw deep into games nor is he known for missing bats at an above-average rate. Given the Brewers’ strikeout propensity, does he have a chance of going over 5.5 strikeouts?
Paddack averaged fewer than 4 2/3 innings per start and strikes out only 8.42 batters per nine. This means he should have 4.25 strikeouts in a typical start. However, when you adjust his strikeout rate for the Brewers’ lineup, he should have 4.92 strikeouts.
It will be a sweat, but I like Paddack’s under tonight. In order to go over 5.5 strikeouts, Paddack would need to go deeper than normal and strike out more batter than normal. That is why I like the under.
Pick: Chris Paddack Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-122) (DraftKings) would play up to -130
- Action Labs Score: 5
- Kevin Davis Score: 2
