Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Jon Lester
Since the start of last week, I have gone 12-2 on my MLB strikeout prop picks. Let’s see if we can keep it going.
With a large slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like today, both overs.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop-bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 41-32, +4.08 Units, +5.6% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Randy Dobnak (MIN) — 3.5 Strikeouts (+114/-146)
| Twins at Orioles | Twins (-144) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Randy Dobnak of the Minnesota Twins is a hard pitcher to assess. He alternates between long relief and starting, but throws a decent amount of innings regardless. This season, Dobnak started in the Twins’ bullpen, struggled was sent to Triple-A, and called back up a few weeks later for a spot in the starting rotation. It’s been a roller coaster, to say the least.
Since joining the starting rotation, Dobnak has been a mixed bag in his two starts. In his first start, he pitched six shutout innings and allowed only three hits. In his last start, Dobnak pitched six innings and allowed nine hits and six earned runs. Dobnak may be inconsistent, but he has something that is pure gold for pitcher strikeout props: The Twins love to keep him in games for a long time.
Dobnak going over his strikeout total of 3.5 strikeouts is not automatic, of course. For his career, Dobank has a strikeout rate of 6.13 per nine innings. As a rule, Dobnak should have about four strikeouts in a six-innings start. Luckily for Dobnak, the Orioles’ lineup is not good at avoiding strikeouts.
Baltimore averages 8.86 strikeouts per game, which is the league median. However, the O’s only score 3.8 runs per game, which is 0.53 runs fewer than the average team. With Dobnak likely to go deep against a weak lineup, he should go over his strikeout total. At plus money odds, Dobnak having over 3.5 strikeouts is a good bet to make.
Pick: Randy Dobnak (MIN) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+114) (FanDuel) would play up to -105
- Action Labs Score: 7
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
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Jon Lester (WAS) — 3.5 Strikeouts (-122/-104)
| Nationals at Braves | Braves (-164) |
| Time | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Jon Lester used to be one of the better pitchers in the league. However, at 37-years old and in his 16th season, Lester is just mediocre. Against a dynamic Braves lineup averaging 4.88 runs per game — the third best in the National League — Lester should get eaten alive. However, with a strikeout total of only 3.5 strikeouts, can he go over?
Lester is averaging about five innings per start this season and has a strikeout rate of 6.75 per nine. Over the course of a typical five-inning start, Lester should have 3.75 strikeouts. But that’s also about his floor, in my opinion.
In the past, Lester could be relied upon to have a strikeout rate between seven and eight per nine. This season, FanGraphs projected Lester to have a strikeout rate of 7.58. Additionally, the Braves’ lineup has 2.3% more strikeouts than the typical MLB lineup. Once you adjust Lester’s projected strikeout total for the Braves’ lineup and his projected strikeout rate, he should have 4.31 strikeouts.
At -122, I am betting on Lester to have over 3.5 strikeouts, and I would bet it up to -135.
Pick: Jon Lester (WAS) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-122) (DraftKings) would play up to -135
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 4
