Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell.
With a small slate of games, there are not many props to choose from. Unsurprisingly, most of the pitcher props have been efficiently set for today’s slate. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like today, both unders.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop-bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 29-30, -4.94 Units, -8.4% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
David Peterson (NYM) 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-134)
| Rockies vs. Mets | Mets -139 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
In his second big-league season, former first-round pick David Peterson is allowing more runs per game than he did as a rookie, although he has a higher strikeout rate. On Monday night, he is likely to face a struggling Rockies lineup at Citi Field.
When you factor out Coors Field and only look at the Rockies performance on the road, their lineup is averaging only 2.79 runs per game, which is the worst in the league away from home. Additionally, Colorado’s lineup averages 9.28 strikeouts per game, which is the ninth-worst in the league.
The issue for Peterson is not the opposing lineup. It’s how deep he is pitching into games.
Peterson is averaging less than five innings per start. His strikeout rate while impressive at 10.89 strikeouts per nine innings is not high enough to have seven or more strikeouts based on that average. In a typical game, Peterson strikes out about 5.75, which is below his 6.5 strikeout total for Monday’s game.
Even against a weak Rockies lineup, Peterson should go under his strikeout total on Monday night.
Pick: David Peterson Under 6.5 Strikeouts -134 (play up to -150)
- Action Labs Score: 10
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
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Blake Snell (SDP) 7.5 Strikeouts (+104/-132)
| Padres vs. Brewers | Brewers -126 |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
From a strikeout props angle, Blake Snell is a lot like Peterson. The Padres lefty has a high strikeout rate, but a low usage rate.
On Monday night, Snell faces a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that is averaging 9.66 strikeouts per game, which is fifth worst in the league. The question is not if Snell can strike out the Brewers often enough, but whether he can pitch enough innings to have eight or more strikeouts.
In the past when Snell played for the Rays, he would not pitch as deep into games as someone of his caliber usually would. The conventional wisdom at the beginning of the season was that now that he is pitching with the Padres, he should get more innings in each of his starts.
However, Snell is averaging less than 4 2/3 innings per start. While Snell has a strikeout rate of 13.39 strikeouts per nine innings, he should regress to a strikeout rate of 11.5.
With Snell’s current usage and strikeout rate, on a typical night Snell would have 6.67 strikeouts, and that’s with an inflated K/9 rate. The Brewers may be strikeout prone, but Snell’s under remains a good bet if he can’t pitch deep enough into the game.
Pick: Blake Snell Under 7.5 Strikeouts -126 (play up to -140)
- Action Labs Score: 9 (Based on 6.5 Strikeouts +120)
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
