Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Paddack
It’s the final Sunday of the fall without NFL, but there’s still action to be had on baseball.
Our staff analyzed the slate to identify the best MLB bets on the board — and both happen to be on the same game. Their picks and explanations are below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Astros -105 at Padres
| Book | FanDuel |
| Pitchers | Luis Garcia vs. Chris Paddack |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
Mike Ianniello: The Padres continue to be overrated in the market based on their preseason expectations and star power in the lineup. The truth is, San Diego has just been league average for much of the season.
The Padres have gone 19-24 since the All-Star break and are currently on the outside looking in at a playoff position. The Astros, meanwhile, have been the best offense in the league all season and rank first in wOBA and wRC+. They also just got superstar Alex Bregman back in the lineup, who is batting .345 since his return.
Luis Garcia is having a solid rookie season for Houston, going 10-6 with 3.23 ERA in 23 starts, allowing just a .218 batting average against.
Garcia has been very consistent for Houston this year, averaging 5.3 innings per start. All five of his pitches have a negative run value, with his best pitch being his cutter, which has generated a 44.7 Whiff%.
Chris Paddack hasn’t really taken the step forward the Padres hoped, and is 7-6 with a 4.98 ERA. He’s been really inconsistent this season and has struggled to a 6.59 ERA with a .330 batting average against at home.
The wrong team is favored here, so I’ll take Houston as a small dog at -104 and would play them to -115.
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Astros F5 ML (-115) at Padres
| Book | BetMGM |
| Pitchers | Luis Garcia vs. Chris Paddack |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
Matt Trebby: Since Chris Paddack registered a 3.33 ERA as a rookie in 2019, his ERA has gone up every year while his xFIP has gone down.
This year, Paddack is at a 4.98 through 97 2/3 innings, although his 3.66 xFIP indicates some bad luck along the way. He recently returned from the injured list last week and looked good against the lowly Diamondbacks, throwing 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball.
Today, though, Paddack starts at Petco Park, where he has a 6.59 ERA this season compared to a 3.74 mark away from home. He’s also facing one of the best lineups in the majors.
Opposing him for the Astros will be Luis Garcia, who has a higher xFIP than Paddack at 3.69, but he’s been able to turn that number into strong results with a 3.23 ERA.
While Garcia’s road ERA is 4.85, I trust the Astros’ lineup much more than the Padres’ lineup, as I do Garcia over Paddack.
I’ll play the Astros on the first-five innings ML up to -120 today.
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