Ralph Freso/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Foltynewicz.
With a slate of 12 games, there are many MLB props to choose from. Today, there are two strikeout props that I like — an under and an over.
For this article, I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 26-25, -3.27 Units, -6.4% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Rich Hill (TB) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Yankees vs. Rays | Yankees -150 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Rich Hill is 41 years old. Of all players currently on MLB rosters, Hill is the oldest. Despite being advanced in age, Hill has a decent strikeout rate. The question is whether or not he will pitch enough innings to go over his strikeout total of 5.5.
Tampa is known for using its starting pitchers conservatively. A typical starting pitcher will pitch for five innings before its bullpen depth handles the rest of the game. Hill is averaging only around 4 2/3 innings per start. Last season with the Minnesota Twins, Hill averaged less than five innings per start. For Hill to have six or more strikeouts, he will have to pitch for more innings than usual.
Hill’s strikeout rate sits at 9.19 strikeouts per nine innings. As a rule of thumb this season, Hill should have a strikeout for every inning he pitches. In Hill’s last start, he pitched for six innings but had only four strikeouts.
In the rare event Hill pitches for more than five innings, he’s not a lock to have six or more strikeouts. The opposing Yankees lineup is not particularly strikeout prone, so I believe Hill goes under his strikeout total.
Pick: Rich Hill Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) (Play to -140)
- Action Labs Score: 7
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
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Mike Foltynewicz (TEX) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+134)
| Rangers vs. Astros | Astros -220 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Houston’s lineup is where power pitchers go to die.
The Astros average only 7.22 strikeouts per game, which is the lowest in the league. Houston’s plate discipline is so impressive that the Mets — who are in second place for fewest strikeouts in the league — average almost a full strikeout more per game than Houston.
As a result, opposing Rangers starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz has a lower strikeout total than usual.
Foltynewicz has a strikeout rate of only 8.10 strikeouts per nine innings. However, Foltynewicz has been an innings eater this season, as he’s averaging more than 5 2/3 innings per start. On a typical day, Foltynewicz should have 5.13 strikeouts. In fact, in five of his seven starts this season, Foltynewicz has had five or more strikeouts.
It will be tough for Foltynewicz to compile strikeouts against the Astros. However, at +134 odds, Foltynewicz’s strikeout total is worth a shot. I would bet on Foltynewicz to have over 4.5 strikeouts at up to +115 odds.
Pick: Mike Foltynewicz Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+134) (Play to +115)
- Action Labs Score: 6
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
