MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: 2 Bets For Red Sox-Blue Jays & Giants-Dodgers (July 21)

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: Giants SP Logan Webb

The Giants and Dodgers split the first two games of this week’s four-game series. Now only one game separates the two teams atop the NL West standings.

But where’s the betting value on Wednesday’s meeting?

With Logan Webb and Julio Urias set to face-off in Los Angeles, our analysts break down how they’re betting this key matchup as well as Red Sox-Blue Jays.

MLB Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
Red Sox at Blue Jays 7:07 p.m. ET
Giants at Dodgers 10:10 p.m. ET

Red Sox at Blue Jays

Pick Blue Jays Team Total Over 5.5 (-130)
Book DraftKings
Pitchers Garrett Richards vs. Robbie Ray
First Pitch 7:07 p.m. ET

Kenny Ducey: I cannot stress enough how much of a liability Garrett Richards is. Not only has he tanked since a nice April, he’s seen his spin rates plummet after the league’s crackdown on foreign substances.

Somehow, there is an even lower bar for the Red Sox righty.

Although he’s given up only five earned over his last two starts, spanning 10 innings — I know, only! — he’s still loaded up the basepaths with 12 hits and four walks against him. That follows on the heels of three disasters that coincided with the league’s aforementioned announcement that it won’t tolerate sticky stuff any longer.

More than half of the batted balls off Richards this year have been hit at 95+ mph, and the expected batting average against him is nearly .300, which is one of the league’s very worst marks.

In his last two starts against some of the more inconsistent offenses in the Phillies and Athletics, Richards was able to escape without too many bruises. But with the Blue Jays lurking with the fourth-best hard-hit rate in baseball and the second-most barrels per plate appearance, I couldn’t be any less confident in Richards.

I have no idea what is going to happen with Robbie Ray here. I like him a lot this season, but this Boston offense won’t quit. Even if it has cooled against lefties, I want no part in fading the Red Sox at this exorbitant price. So, I’ll take the team total on the Blue Jays.


» Return to the table of contents «

Giants at Dodgers

Pick Giants +150
Book BetMGM
Pitchers Logan Webb vs. Julio Urias
First Pitch 10:10 p.m. ET

Brad Cunningham: Logan Webb has actually been really good for the Giants this year.

Webb’s xERA is at 3.45 and his xFIP is at 3.03. He’s mainly a sinker-ball guy, and it’s been pretty effective considering opponents have a -6 run value against it. But his slider has by far been his best pitch: Opponents are hitting .111 against it and it has an insane 51.6% whiff rate.

The Dodgers will be a tough matchup because they do hit righties, sinkers and sliders well, but Webb did shut down the Dodgers in his only start against them in late May giving up only one hit and one earned run in five innings of work.

Julio Urias has very similar numbers to that of Webb — Urias’ xERA and xFIP are both below four, but this isn’t a great matchup for him because he is mainly a fastball pitcher, going to it 49.6% of the time. And he has not been effective with, as it’s allowing a .413 wOBA. And guess what the Giants absolutely murder? Fastballs. They have a +43.9 run value against them, which is the best mark in Major League Baseball. They also hit left handers pretty well, as they have .324 wOBA.

I have the Giants projected at +124, so there’s some value on them at +150. I would play it down to +140.


» Return to the table of contents «


Leave a Reply