Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher David Peterson.
Mets vs. Cubs Odds
| Mets Odds | -137 |
| Cubs Odds | +118 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLBTV |
| Odds as of Wednesday morning via DraftKings. | |
The Chicago Cubs took the first game of their series with the New York Mets, earning a 3-1 victory on Tuesday at Wrigley Field.
Despite marquee names in both lineups, there wasn’t much offense on display. The Cubs scored their runs on the backs of an Eric Sogard single, an error by J.D. Davis and a Willson Contreras walk. On the other side, the Mets’ lone run came via a fifth-inning solo home run from Davis.
With the win, the Cubs moved to 7-9 and the Mets sunk to 7-5 this season.
Can the offenses pick things up in this latest meeting or will we see another low-scoring pitcher’s duel?
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New York Mets
David Peterson will make the start for the Mets. While Peterson’s season numbers aren’t great (4.89 FIP, 2.70 HR/9), so far they’re a bit misleading.
He had a particularly difficult time in his season debut against the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing six earned runs (including two home runs) over just four innings, but rebounded nicely in his last outing against that same lineup. In his last start, he went six innings, allowing just one run and struck out 10 batters.
If he’s going to improve his home-run ratio, he’ll need to lower his Barrel percentage, which currently measures at a very high 20.8% thus far.
However, his latest matchup won’t be the easiest. The Cubs have been strong against left-handed pitching , collectively hitting to a .341 wOBA and .257 ISO in such situations.
As for the Mets’ bullpen, it has been lights out in the early going, compiling a 3.21 FIP, 10.8 K/9 and just 0.6 HR/9 on the season.
Chicago Cubs
Zach Davies will take the hill for his fourth start. Davies has struggled, pitching to a 6.04 xFIP and allowing a 38.1% Hard Hit rate. Over his first three starts, he’s lasted a total of just 11 1/3 innings and allowed a high .386 BABIP to opposing batters.
Overall, the Mets have found some success against right-handed pitching, accumulating a .310 wOBA so far, good for the eighth-best mark in baseball. Lead-off hitter Brandon Nimmo has been particularly strong, hitting to a .393 wOBA against righties.
If Davies struggles, the Cubs will feel comfortable turning to the bullpen early on. It has been strong this season, collectively pitching to a 4.01 xFIP and a 0.82 HR/9 rate thus far. The bullpen’s 12.0 K/9 is also the best among all big-league clubs.
Mets-Cubs Pick
While neither Peterson or Davies have been overly steady, both of teams have struggled to score runs as of late. If you exclude their 13-run outburst against the Braves on Saturday, the Cubs have averaged just 2.4 runs per game over their past five outings.
The Mets have not been much better. Despite the winning record, they have also found it difficult to run up the score, averaging just 2.8 runs per game over their past five contests.
If the starters can avoid the big inning against these struggling offenses, the bullpens have proven more than capable of shutting the door.
Despite the low total of seven runs, I’m taking the under in this one as my top pick. I’d prefer to play it at the current mark, but I would bet it up to -110 odds.
Pick: Total Under 7 Runs (+100)
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