Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: James Karinchak and Roberto Perez.
Indians vs. White Sox Odds
| Indians Odds | +100 |
| White Sox Odds | -118 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (+104 / -125) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLBTV |
| Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
The Cleveland Indians are proving doubters wrong yet again. After losing their shortstop Francisco Lindor, first baseman Carlos Santana, starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco and reliever Brad Hand, the Indians still find themselves atop the division.
The pitching has been the story for Cleveland as it has allowed the second-fewest runs (26) behind the Mets (25) despite playing three more games than New York.
Their pitching was on full display yet again on Tuesday as Shane Bieber outlasted Chicago’s Lucas Giolito to pitch nine innings of shutout baseball before the Indians could scratch a few runs in the 10th to win 2-0.
We could be in for another pitcher’s duel on Wednesday night with Zach Plesac on Cleveland’s mound against Carlos Rodón for Chicago.
Both pitchers have combined to allow just two earned runs in three starts, and I’ve got some data that shows that we should expect another low-scoring ballgame.
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Cleveland Indians
I’ll admit that I did not see this coming from the Indians. In an era where everything’s about exit velocity and launch angles, the Indians show the baseball world that you can accomplish a lot with sound pitching.
Cleveland has scored the sixth-fewest runs (42) in the league, and yet ranks sixth in run differential (+16) because of its pitching. Cleveland’s 2.55 ERA is the second-lowest in the league, and the staff boasts a 10.19 K/9 ratio.
Plesac has been a big part of the pitching staff’s success.
He seems to be pitching to more contact this year as his 1.42 GB/FB ratio shows almost a 50 percent improvement from last season, given the shorter sample size.
I’ve noticed that this season, he’s creating more separation between his changeup and his fastball. His changeup is a tick slower (84.9 mph) than last year, which gives batters the impression that his 92 mph fastball has even more velocity.
In fact, the whiff rate on his four-seam fastball has almost doubled from 15.1% to 28.2%. The four-seamer could be an effective pitch for Plesac against a White Sox team that’s 3.5 runs below average when facing a fastball.
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Chicago White Sox
It’s been quite a long comeback from Tommy John surgery for Rodón, but perhaps his last start was finally a step in the right direction. The left-hander pitched five innings of shutout ball against the Mariners to pick up his first win since the 2019 season.
Rodón did make his return in 2020 but had a setback in August and didn’t return to the team until late September when he was given a bullpen role.
The good news is that he’s healthy again, and somehow, he’s throwing with the same velocity as when he first made his major league debut.
Rodón averaged 95.4 mph on his four-seam fastball against the Mariners. Last season, his four-seamer had an average velocity of 92.8 mph. In 2016, his second year in the big leagues, his pitch velocity was 94.2 mph.
He’s been able to have success against a Cleveland lineup that has just 14 hits in 67 at-bats against him and a .209/.299/.313 line. His .104 ISO against them is above average, and he has yet to surrender a home run to any of their hitters.
Indians-White Sox Pick
This season, the White Sox have an above-average wRC+ value of 101, but they could find runs hard to come by on Wednesday with Plesac on the mound. In 54 at-bats, Chicago’s lineup has just 11 hits against Plesac. Their .093 ISO is below average as they’ve yet to hit a home run off him.
In preparing for this game, I found multiple angles that would support the under:
- The total is 5-1 (+4 units) to the under when Rodón faces the Indians at home.
- When Rodón faces the Indians, the total is 10-4-1 (+5.65 units) to the under.
- The total is 8-2 (+5.85 units) to the under in Cleveland’s games this season.
Lastly, in games involving the White Sox where that include a shutout in the previous game, have gone under 57.3% of the time.
I think we’ll see another strong outing from both pitchers, and I’m intrigued to see if Rodón can replicate his newfound velocity in his second start.
We’re already starting to see some pressure on the under with sportsbooks tacking on some juice at 15 cents.
At FanDuel, it’ll only cost you an additional 10 cents at -120, so I’ll look to book my action there.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
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