Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Bauer.
Dodgers vs. Angels Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -186 |
| Angels Odds | +160 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Sunday morning and via DraftKings. | |
The Los Angeles Dodgers have not won a series in their last five attempts. That seems almost unfathomable for a team that added Trevor Bauer to its roster following a season in which they finished with a .717 win percentage.
Of the six players the Dodgers didn’t retain who left as free agents, only Enrique Hernandez and Joc Pederson were everyday starters. However, it’s unlikely that either player would classify as irreplaceable.
In fact, the Dodgers were expected to keep things churning so much that their win total was set at 102.5. And yet, they sit just two games above .500 (18-16) and 2.5 games out of first place.
The good news for the Dodgers is Bauer will be on the mound for the rubber game of this series. Jose Quintana opposes him for the Angels.
Quintana is off to the worst start of his career, and his inability to pitch deep in his outings makes him a fade candidate in the first five innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers
There doesn’t seem to be much of a dropoff in Bauer’s form after his 2020 Cy Young campaign. The California native is off to a 3-1 start this season with a 2.44 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. He’s had a quality start in five of his seven outings this season, but his last appearance lasted only 4 1/3 innings after issuing four walks in the game.
That lack of command is uncharacteristic of Bauer, who has allowed fewer than three walks per nine innings in two of his last three seasons. The good thing about a pitcher of his ilk is that he’ll know for himself what he needs to correct in his mechanics. Since last season, Bauer has yet to have consecutive starts in which he allowed three or more walks.
The bigger story of this game might be the Dodgers offense that erupted for 14 runs on Saturday against the Angels. It almost wasn’t enough as the Dodgers bullpen allowed 11 runs in four innings after Clayton Kershaw’s shutout performance through five. If the Dodgers go back to the World Series, they might need their offense to produce that type of run support more frequently.
While their starters are ranked second in wins (14), turning the game over to a bullpen that leads the league with 12 blown saves is a dicey proposition. And that’s all the more reason to consider backing the Dodgers in the first five innings of their games as opposed to the full nine innings.
Los Angeles Angels
It appears that the Angels are inclined to give Quintana as much time as he might need to correct his issues on the mound. I guess they feel he’s earned that right as a nine-year veteran who has won 83 of his 163 decisions in the big leagues.
Quintana has struggled with his control this season as he’s allowing 7.41 walks per nine innings. Perhaps he’s close to turning the corner after walking only one batter in his last start. However, he failed to pitch into the fifth inning for the fourth time in five starts this year.
Sunday’s matchup will be a good test to see if Quintana has resolved his command woes. He’ll be facing a Dodgers team that ranks second with a walk rate of 11.6%.
The current Dodgers lineup is familiar with Quintana as they have 63 plate appearances against him and drew six walks. But they’ve also had success getting on base against him by other means, as evidenced by their .427 wOBA. The Dodgers hitters will hope to stay hot at the plate, considering their .357 AVG / .429 OBP / .554 slash line against Quintana.
Dodgers-Angels Pick
The more you look at Quintana’s numbers, the more difficult it is to back him until you start to see a noticeable change. Only 31% of Quintana’s pitches are in the strike zone. Last year, that number wasn’t much better at 33.3%, while all his previous seasons were at least 40%.
Hitters have plenty of success when they make contact against him as they have a .477 average on balls that are put in to play. Since we know that all hits cannot be treated equally, if we look at Quintana’s batted ball numbers, we’ll also find that hitters are barrelling him up 12.8% of the time. That’s almost double his previous high of 7.7% last year.
There’s a clear decline in his performance over the last two seasons, and it’s difficult to pitch deep into games with the numbers he’s put forth. And with Quintana making it into the fifth inning only once in the last two seasons, I think he’s well worth a fade on the first five run line.
Quintana is just 110-132 for a loss of 31.94 units on the run line in the first five innings.
That makes fading him in this spot just too good to pass up.
After shopping around, I found that BetMGM has odds on the Dodgers at -133, so I’ll look to place my action there.
Pick: Dodgers F5 Run Line -0.5 (-133)
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