Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami Marlins standout Adam Duvall.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +110 |
| Marlins Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLBTV |
| Odds as of Thursday morning via BetMGM. | |
The Miami Marlins look to grab their first series sweep Thursday when they send Pablo López to the mound against the Arizona Diamondbacks. López has yet to win a decision despite pitching to a 2.34 ERA this season.
He’ll be opposed by Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner, who has had a bit of resurgence of late. After an 0-2 start, Bumgarner has won his last three starts, including a hitless performance in a seven-inning game against the Atlanta Braves.
While there’s no question Bumgarner is probably in his best form since joining Arizona, the biggest challenge he faces in the Diamondbacks might be on offense. Arizona has been decimated by injuries to start the season and their lack of success at Marlins Park in recent years warrants sufficient concern.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have managed just three runs in their last two games. Their wRC+ value of 100 would be considered average, but if we focus on their road splits, we’ll find they’re below average with a value of 93.
This makes sense considering their home ballpark in Arizona yields on average 1.142 more runs than on the road. The home-away splits are pretty dramatic as Arizona has a .268 AVG / .337 OBP / .453 SLG slash line at home vs. .221 AVG / .310 OBP / .394 SLG on the road.
And when Arizona has been able to get runners on base, particularly in scoring position, it has been one of the worst-performing teams in the league. The Diamondbacks are hitting just .215 in this situational spot, and they’re also ranked 26th with a hard contact rate of 26.8 percent.
They’ll be facing a pitcher in López, who has done well to limit opposing hitters to a .208 average with runners in scoring position. López’s quality as a ground-ball pitcher also benefits him in this spot as his GB/FB ratio jumps from 1.59 to 2.75 this season.
Overall, he has had good numbers against the Diamondbacks’ lineup. In 25 plate appearances against him, Arizona’s hitters are batting just .238 with a single run batted in.
Miami Marlins
Miami has done well to generate some offense in its last few games. The Marlins followed a nine-run outburst in the series opener Tuesday with eight runs in Wednesday’s triumph.
As well as Bumgarner has pitched coming into this game, I’ve got to think the Marlins will fancy their chances against him. After all, it allows them to stack their lineup against another left-handed pitcher.
Miami has done well against lefties this season when you consider their .260 AVG / .331 OBP / .458 SLG slash line compared to .221 AVG. / .299 OBP / .333 SLG against righties. In fact, Miami’s numbers against lefties are very similar to how their hitters have done against Bumgarner. In 40 plate appearances against him, the Marlins are hitting .270 with a .325 OBP and .432 SLG.
Despite the success Bumgarner has enjoyed in his career, Miami is one team that has probably left him befuddled. He’s 2-4 against the Marlins, with a 4.47 ERA in 10 starts. The team’s win-loss record in those games is actually 2-8 for -9.9 units.
Diamondbacks-Marlins Pick
I felt it was important to focus on both offenses coming into this game. Arizona’s hitters have been sputtering, and we know they’re a much different team once you take them out of Chase Field.
It also hasn’t helped they’re currently without two-thirds of their starting outfield, with Ketel Marte and Kole Calhoun on the IL with hamstring injuries.
Marte has only played in six games, but was off to a hot start with a .462 AVG, .846 SLG., in addition to two home runs and five RBIs. Calhoun has played in 13 games, hitting .292 with a slugging percentage of .479. He’s hit at least 15 home runs in each of the last seven seasons, including 33 in 2019.
I just don’t see where the runs will come from for Arizona in this game. And if it remains a close contest, you’d have to give the edge to a Marlins bullpen that’s seventh in the league with a 3.46 ERA compared to Arizona that’s 27th with a 5.27 ERA.
We know about Arizona’s offensive woes on the road, its depleted lineup and Bumgarner’s struggles against the Marlins. Here’s another thing to keep in mind: Since the 2016 season, the Diamondbacks are just 5-12 for a loss of 8.44 units at Marlins Park.
After shopping around, I found BetMGM and others have the best price on favorite Miami at -130 odds. That said, I like this spot to back the Marlins to pick up their first sweep of the season.
Pick: Marlins ML (-125)
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