Andy Jacobsohn/Getty Images. Pictured: Kolby Allard and Jonah Heim
A couple of doubleheaders give us a jam-packed, 17-game MLB slate on this Tuesday, which means there’s more than enough opportunities to find some action.
Our analysts have found angles on four games with four different picks, ranging from Cardinals vs. Pirates, Athletics vs. Indians, Marlins vs. Padres and Rangers vs. Mariners.
Here are our four best bets from Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate.
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MLB Odds & Picks
| Click on a game to skip ahead | |
| Cardinals vs. Pirates | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Athletics vs. Indians | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Marlins vs. Padres | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| Rangers vs. Mariners | 10:10 p.m. ET |
Cardinals vs. Pirates
| Pick | Pirates Team Total Over 4 (+100) |
| Book | <!–FanDuel–>FanDuel |
| Pitchers | J.A. Happ vs. Steven Brault |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
Collin Whitchurch: It’s tempting to bet the Pirates moneyline here as they’re home underdogs against the Cardinals, but given that this is Steven Brault’s second start back from the IL and the uncertainty over Pittsburgh’s pitching staff as a whole, I’m content simply betting on them to beat up on J.A. Happ.
Happ has been a fade-worthy pitcher for a majority of this season, with some of the worst full-season numbers you’ll find on any roster: a 6.62 ERA, 5,75 xERA, 5.39 FIP and 5.24 xFIP. He’s allowing nearly two homers per nine innings and walking seven percent of batters he faces. Simply put, he’s been the worst regular starting pitcher in baseball this season.
Happ actually found some success in his first start with the Cardinals, allowing just one run over five innings against the Braves, but I saw no reason in that start to not continue to fade him. Pittsburgh’s moneyline is +115 and I may take a stab at that, but I like the Pirates’ team total even more. They have not been good against lefties this season with a full-season wRC+ of 80 (tied with Texas for worst in baseball) but that number is up to 90 since the start of July — still below-average, but better.
You can find this team total at 4.5 at a number of shops at +115, but FanDuel is offering 4 at +100, and so I’ll hedge a bit with the potential for a push and buy that. I wouldn’t play it unless it had a plus in front of it, though.
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Athletics vs. Indians
| Pick | Under 9.5 (-120) |
| Book | <!–DraftKings–>DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Sean Manaea vs. Triston McKenzie |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
DJ James: Given how the Cleveland Indians are eight games back of the second wild-card spot in the middle of August, this matchup is more of a matter of importance for the Oakland A’s. Cleveland sends its prized young arm in Triston McKenzie to the bump against Sean Manaea.
Cleveland has shockingly been an above-average hitting team since July 1, but their 90 wRC+ on the season is more in line with the team’s hitting capabilities. Trading César Hernández to their division rival further hindered their chances. Franmil Reyes has led the team since July 1 with 174 wRC+ and a .606 SLG percentage when facing lefties. However, José Ramírez sits around 99 wRC+, and making the best hitter on the squad league-average definitely impacts a team’s abilities to succeed. The main issue here is Manaea loves to throw strikes, and only two current members of the Tribe eclipse a 10% walk rate in that same time frame.
To Cleveland’s advantage, it has plenty of firepower in the bullpen, so if Oakland is going to score, it will more than likely be early against McKenzie, who only ranks in the third percentile in average exit velocity and walk rate.
That said, since July 1, Oakland has been far below average against righties. McKenzie’s above-average chase and strikeout percentages should play to his advantage. Matt Chapman and Sean Murphy have struggled mightily lately, so there are enough indicators for the under. 9.5 runs is far too many runs in what will likely turn into a close victory for Oakland. Take this to 9 (-110).
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Marlins vs. Padres
| Pick | Marlins Team Total Over 3 (-105) |
| Book | FanDuel |
| Pitchers | Braxton Garrett vs. Craig Stammen |
| First Pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
Jeff Hicks: The Marlins are not an explosive offense, but have a better slugging percentage away from South Beach. In five more road than home games, Miami has 24 more home runs. Not bad considering they traded away their top home run hitter.
The Marlins have also scored at least three runs in three of four road games on their current trip. Sure, it was in Colorado, but the Rockies’ pitching staff is better at home than on the road.
The Padres are taking the bullpen game approach today with no true fifth starter at the moment. San Diego has the best bullpen ERA in baseball but have one of the biggest negative discrepancies between ERA and FIP and xFIP.
FanDuel has the best odds on Miami’s team total, but even if it does move, PointsBet has it at -115, which is where I’d set my threshold.
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Rangers vs. Mariners
| Pick | Rangers +180 |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Kolby Allard vs. Logan Gilbert |
| First Pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
Sean Zerillo: Expected indicators, and other advanced metrics, aren’t necessarily a one-size-fits-all manner of player evaluation. We would love it if they were, of course, but it’s simply not the case.
Some players will remain outliers and seemingly over or underperform for their entire careers relative to those indicators.
Ricky Nolasco (career 4.56 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 3.98 SIERA) is always the pitcher who stands out in my mind — consistently worse than the sum of his parts, year after year.
Rangers starter Kolby Allard (5.92 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, 4.85 SIERA) has followed a similar career path through his age-23 season, and his 2021 results (5.07 ERA, 4.40 xERA, 4.27 xFIP, 4.13 SIERA) tell a similar story.
Allard owns a 63.3% strand rate (49.6% in 2020) to go with a 14.9% HR/FB rate — both of which should regress toward league average (72.1% and 13.6%, respectively). Perhaps Allard is significantly worse when pitching out of the stretch, as opposed to the windup, but it’s more likely than not that his ERA will regress toward his underlying metrics at some point.
He’s a solid but unspectacular arm with four average offerings (fastball, cutter, changeup, curveball) and the ability to eat innings as a workhorse at the back-end of a rotation.
Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has excelled after some early hiccups, posting a 3.55 ERA and 3.56 xFIP over his past 10 starts (50 2/3 IP, 15 BB, 63 K). The tall righty is already getting a ton of respect in the betting markets.
I projected Allard and the Rangers as 43.2% underdogs for the first five innings (F5) and 41.6% underdogs for the whole game on Tuesday. I would bet those moneylines down to +145 and +160, respectively.
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