Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: The Chicago White Sox celebrate a recent win.
It’s Tuesday and we’ve got a full slate of Major League Baseball games to satiate your betting appetite.
Our analysts have eyes on three games from the slate, with four bets total, including picks on Rays vs. Red Sox, Nationals vs. Braves and White Sox vs. Athletics.
Here are our four best bets from Tuesday night’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
| Click on a game to skip ahead | |
| Rays vs. Red Sox | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Rays vs. Red Sox | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Nationals vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| White Sox vs. Athletics | 9:40 p.m. ET |
Rays vs. Red Sox
| Pick | Rays Team Total Over 4.5 (-110) |
| Book | BetRivers |
| Pitchers | Drew Rasmussen vs. Eduardo Rodriguez |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
DJ James: The Tampa Bay Rays take on the Boston Red Sox in an American League battle and the Rays are somehow getting minimal juice on their moneyline against a left-handed pitcher they saw last week. However, seeing how the Boston Red Sox have hit right-handers in the last month, this is not where the edge lies as much in this game.
Yes, Eduardo Rodriguez tossed a gem against the Rays the last time out (6 IP, 0 ER), but Tampa has feasted on lefties since August 1. The Rays rank first in wRC+ at 143 and hold a walk rate over 10%. Only Yandy Díaz and Nelson Cruz were below average in that timeframe. Being without both Brett Phillips and Ji-Man Choi hurts, but the Rays have had a “next man up” approach all season and it has worked. In addition, Tampa has a .343 xwOBA against the four-seamer this season. This is Rodriguez’s most-featured pitch at nearly 40% usage.
Boston also has a combined bullpen ERA of 5.28 in August. The Red Sox used Garrett Richards, Garrett Whitlock, Adam Ottavino, Stephen Gonsalves, Austin Davis and Josh Taylor in Monday’s game. They will be short-handed, so this also allows the Rays to take advantage of a tired bullpen.
The Rays’ offense should have a field day. Take the team total over 4.5 (-110) and play to 5 (-120).
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Rays vs. Red Sox
| Pick | First Five Innings Under 5 (+100) |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Drew Rasmussen vs. Eduardo Rodriguez |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
Anthony Dabbundo: After Monday afternoon’s thrilling 11-10 extra inning win for Tampa Bay, the Red Sox and Rays continue their three-game series at Fenway Park on Tuesday. Boston’s lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez is consistently undervalued in the market and has run quite unlucky based on his expected stats.
Rodriguez has a 4.88 ERA despite career-best numbers in strikeouts and walks. His xERA is more than a full run lower at 3.58, his FIP and xFIP both sit around 3.40 and he’s been much better than his results have showed.
The Rays counter Rodriguez with righty Drew Rasmussen, who has faced Boston’s lineup twice this year and been successful both times. He’s allowed one run in each start against the Red Sox this year, going four innings each time.
Rasmussen is as good as his 3.38 ERA suggests, with a 3.08 FIP and 3.63 xERA. His strikeout and ground ball rates are both well above league average, which contributes to his excellent numbers and performance against the Red Sox lineup this year.
Despite all the runs scored yesterday against starters Chris Sale and Ryan Yarbrough, runs should be much tougher to come by in this game, especially early on. Anything -105 or better is good for under five in the first five innings as both starters remain underrated.
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Nationals vs. Braves
| Pick | Braves First Five Innings -0.5 (-155) |
| Book | BetMGM |
| Pitchers | Paolo Espino vs. Max Fried |
| First Pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
Michael Arinze: The Atlanta Braves can’t seem to pull away in the NL East. They’ve gone 4-8 in their last 12 games after rattling off a nine-game winning streak. They’ll return home off a 2-5 road trip to face a Nationals team that’s 4-12 in its last 16 games.
Washington will start Paolo Espino in the series opener, and Atlanta will counter with Max Fried. Fried comes into the game at 11-7 with a 3.51 ERA. His 3.52 FIP is right in line with his ERA, so there isn’t much concern for regression there.
He’s been tremendous of late as he’s gone 4-0 since the end of July and even posted a 1.36 ERA in August. In his last six outings, Fried registered a quality start and received a no-decision after allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers in a 4-3 loss. He should benefit from a return to his home ballpark, where he’s 6-3 with a 3.20 FIP vs. 5-4 and a 3.82 FIP on the road. In fact, the Braves are 7-1 in his last eight starts when he pitches at Truist Park.
As for Espino, he’ll make his 15th start despite beginning the season out of the bullpen. While he’s 4-4 with a 4.08 ERA, his 4.40 FIP does make him a candidate for some regression. It’s also worth noting that he’s yet to complete six innings of work this season. In fact, he’s more likely to pitch four or five innings at best.
Espino has made six appearances against the Braves with one start and what stands out in those outings is Atlanta’s .394 ISO against him. That could be problematic for Espino, who also has a 1.57 HR/9 ratio. I think that’s even more reason to fade him in the first five innings of this contest.
At home, Fried is 7-4 against the spread in this spot this season, and he’s on a 5-1 run in his last six games. The Nationals have also struggled in back-to-back games of late as they’ve yet to post consecutive wins in their last 16 games.
I like the Braves in this spot, so I’ll target them on the first five run line (-0.5 / -155) at BetMGM. I’m comfortable playing this up to -165.
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White Sox vs. Athletics
| Pick | White Sox +115 |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Jimmy Lambert vs. James Kaprielian |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
Sean Zerillo: I’m a bit confused as to how the odds for the first five innings (F5) and full game aligned on this matchup.
While we have a limited data sample on both starting pitchers, I give a slight edge to Oakland’s James Kaprielian over Chicago’s Jimmy Lambert — by about one-tenth of a run in terms of projected ERA.
That said, I see advantages for the White Sox everywhere else in this matchup, particularly in the bullpen, where they have been much better all season. The White Sox have a top-three bullpen by virtually any measure (3.86 xFIP, second; 3.50 SIERA, first; 19% K-BB%, first) while the Athletics have ranked closer to the bottom (4.70 xFIP, 28th; 4.42 SIERA, 27th, 11.8% K-BB%, 27th).
Both teams have made in-season trades with the Cubs to shore up those bullpens as well, with Chicago acquiring Ryan Tepera and Craig Kimbrel, while Oakland added southpaw Andrew Chafin.
My model projects the White Sox bullpen more than a half-run better than their Tuesday opponents (3.50 vs. 4.04 Model Weighted ERA), and it projected the moneyline right around a coinflip (49.4%) for this contest.
The F5 moneyline (projected 47.6% for Chicago) looks about right to me, but there is actionable value on the White Sox full game moneyline, down to +110.
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