Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove
There are just five games on the MLB slate for Monday, but that doesn’t mean there still isn’t plenty of value to be found.
Our analysts have found angles on three different games with four bets total, including plays on Brewers vs. Cubs, Yankees vs. Royals and Marlins vs. Padres.
Here are our four best bets from Monday’s Major League Baseball slate.
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MLB Odds & Picks
| Click on a game to skip ahead | |
| Brewers vs. Cubs | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Yankees vs. Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Yankees vs. Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Marlins vs. Padres | 10:10 p.m. ET |
Brewers vs. Cubs
| Pick | Brewers -1.5 (-125) |
| Book | <!–DraftKings–>DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Freddy Peralta vs. Alec Mills |
| First Pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
Michael Arinze: The Milwaukee Brewers will head to Chicago to take on the Cubs after blowing two games against the Giants in late innings. On Saturday, Milwaukee couldn’t close out a 2-1 lead and lost 9-6 against San Francisco. The following day, Milwaukee blew a 4-2 lead in the seventh inning and lost 5-4.
As for the Cubs, they’re mired in a four-game losing streak with two wins in their last 12 games. At the trade deadline, Chicago was a big seller, with Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, Anthony Rizzo and Craig Kimbrel all being jettisoned to contending teams. The Cubs will look back on track with Alec Mills on the mound, and the Brewers will counter with Freddy Peralta.
Peralta has already faced the Cubs four times this season, and he’s 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA. Milwaukee actually won all four of those starts. This will be Mills’ second start against Milwaukee this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in six outings.
Although the Brewers haven’t had great success against Mills, their lineup has improved since they faced him in April. In fact, since the All-Star break, Milwaukee’s wRC+ value is 11 percent higher than its season value of 90. In contrast, the Cubs have had a wRC+ value of 88 since the break.
Chicago could be the perfect opponent for Milwaukee to snap its losing streak. The Cubs failed to cover the run line in each of their last three games, and I think that streak will continue against a Brewers team with some pent-up frustration. This also feels like a letdown spot for the Cubs after the White Sox swept them in interleague play. That should play right into the hands of Milwaukee, which is 35-18 (66%) on the road against the run line this season.
I would play Milwaukee’s run line up to -135.
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Yankees vs. Royals
| Pick | Yankees First Five Innings -0.5 (-120) |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Jameson Taillon vs. Carlos Hernández |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
Kenny Ducey: There’s a lot working against the Yankees here. For starters, they’ve won a lot since the break but still sit on the wrong side of the mean with a 99 wRC+ in that time period. Their .147 ISO in that time would indicate that their power issues haven’t gotten any better. They’re also dealing with some big absences with Anthony Rizzo and Gary Sánchez on the COVID-19 list and Gleyber Torres banged up.
With that, I’m still backing New York here as a semi-short road favorite. One thing working for them is Jameson Taillon, who posted a 1.16 ERA in July and has found his strikeout touch, raising his K% to 24.1%. The Royals and their 82 wRC+ since the break aren’t an imposing bunch, and they lack the power with a .148 ISO this year to hit Taillon where it hurts. The righty has had tons of issues with home runs this year, but shouldn’t have to worry much about that pitching at Kauffman Stadium and against a team without big boppers.
The Yankees also get to face Carlos Hernández, who pumps an exciting 98-mph fastball but lacks command. His 14% walk rate makes him a great matchup for New York, which leads the way in that category this year. The Yankees also have plenty of great fastball-hitting options in their lineup.
With that, I think they’re a little undervalued. The concerns are valid, but the pitching matchup is very lopsided.
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Yankees vs. Royals
| Pick | Over 10 (-110) |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Jameson Taillon vs. Carlos Hernández |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
Collin Whitchurch: A total this high at Kauffman Stadium definitely make me raise an eyebrow, but it makes sense.
The weather in Kansas City is ripe for an offensive explosion from the Yankees, Royals or both. The temperature is going to be in the low-90s at first pitch with wind blowing out to left at 10-13 mph.
The Yankees have been on fire lately, winning five of their last six and 10 of their last 13. The offense didn’t overwhelm against the Mariners over the weekend, but they’re still doing what good teams should do: beat up on bad teams. And the Royals are certainly a bad team.
The Yankees should have no trouble scoring, but this total really relies on what the Royals’ offense can do. Jameson Taillon has been pretty good over the last two months, but he’s significantly worse on the road than he is at Yankee Stadium, with a 5.27 ERA in nine away starts compared to 3.22 at home.
This is a contrarian bet, to be sure, as sharps are hitting the under. There’s a big difference between the amount of bets coming in on the over (57%) and the amount of money coming in on the under (79%). I’m with the public tonight, though, as I think the weather will play a role and the two starting pitchers are hittable. Give me Over 10 at -110, but I wouldn’t bet it beyond that.
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Marlins vs. Padres
| Pick | First Five Innings Under 4 (-110) |
| Book | DraftKings |
| Pitchers | Zach Thompson vs. Joe Musgrove |
| First Pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
Brad Cunningham: Zach Thompson has been pitching really well ever since getting called up to the majors. He only has a 3.69 xERA, opponents are only hitting .195 against him, and his hard hit % is below 30%.
Thompson is struggling with his fastball, as it’s allowing a xwOBA of more than .400, but he does a good job mixing his pitches, as he has four different pitches he throws more than 12% of the time and his cutter, changeup and slider have all been really effective, allowing a wOBA under .260.
The three pitches the Padres struggle against the most are cutters, changeups, and sliders with combined -6.9 run value against them. Also, Fernando Tatis Jr. is not going to be in the lineup tonight, and just to show how much he means to the Padres, if you remove his run value from the pitches I just mentioned, they would have a -20.8 run value.
Joe Musgrove who will be on the hill for the Padres has been quite possibly their best pitcher this season, posting an xFIP of 3.50. His control has been on point as he has a K/9 rate over 10 and a BB/9 rate under 2.5. He’s mainly a slider/curveball pitcher and both pitches have been ridiculous. Opponents have under a .180 expected batting average and both pitches are producing better than a 35% whiff rate. Miami is 22nd in MLB against right-handed pitching and they have a combined -10 run value against sliders and curveballs.
I think runs are going to be at a premium early on here so I’ll take Under 4 runs for the first five innings at -110 and would play it up to -115.
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