Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images. Pictured: Harrison Bader and Jose Rondon.
The season is winding down and teams are beginning to figure out more and more where they stand in the pecking order as the playoffs draw near.
Our analysts have found angles on two games from Wednesday’s slate, including a fade of the Cardinals, who are on a 17-game winning streak.
Here are our two best bets for Wednesday in Major League Baseball.
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MLB Odds & Picks
| Click on a game to skip ahead | |
| Brewers vs. Cardinals | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| Indians vs. Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET |
Brewers vs. Cardinals
| Pick | Brewers -105 |
| Book | PointsBet |
| Pitchers | Adrian Houser vs. Miles Mikolas |
| First Pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
Collin Whitchurch: Yeah, I know.
The Cardinals, you may have heard, have won 17 straight games. They turned what was expected to be a tight, chaotic NL wild-card race into a runaway. They clinched their spot with five days to spare.
Why in the world would you fade this team right now?
Well, they have to lose eventually. Right?
…right?
If ever there were an opportunity to fade this unexpected juggernaut, it would be today. The Cardinals clinched their spot in the dance last night. They partied until the break of dawn (probably). I’d be surprised if Mike Shildt sent many of the A-listers out there against Adrian Houser, and he will very likely not use many if any of his key relievers.
Miles Mikolas has been fine since returning from injury, and very good in his last two starts, including allowing just two runs over seven innings against these Brewers last time out.
Adrian Houser has been a mixed bag all season long. He’s faced the Cardinals twice this month, and gave up just one run on six innings against them a week ago. He even beat the Cardinals — yes, it’s true, there was a time when they lost games — with a complete game shutout in Milwaukee earlier this month.
Fade the juggernaut. The post-party malaise is real. Take the Brewers at -105 and to -110.
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Indians vs. Royals
| Pick | Indians -115 |
| Book | BetRivers |
| Pitchers | Zach Plesac vs. Daniel Lynch |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
DJ James: The Indians and Royals square off in Kansas City in a matchup of two AL Central teams just playing out the season. Daniel Lynch, one of Kansas City’s top prospects entering the season, has yet to put it together. He has a 6.07 xERA on the season along with a .367 xwOBA, so batters are feasting on his pitches.
Cleveland has been strong against lefties this month. Against four-seam fastballs — Lynch’s most-featured pitch — it owns a .384 xwOBA and 90.2 Average Exit Velocity since August 1. Expect Lynch’s struggles to continue for his last start of the season.
Zach Plesac is not necessarily dominant on the mound this year, but the Royals have trouble with right-handers. Plesac’s xERA on the season is a bit more reasonable at 4.47. Plus, he does not allow free passes (5.4% walk rate).
The Royals have hit fastballs well since the beginning of August against righties (.332 xwOBA), but these numbers do not jump off of the page as much as Cleveland’s do.
Take Cleveland’s moneyline, given their advantage with the bats. The line is -115, so play this to -130. There is enough value baked into it.
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